onthebrink

Skepticism of an Eth ETF is the only view that accounts for GG & Warren.

GG repeatedly testified that BTC was a commodity. Even then, lawsuits had to force the issue. GG famously refused to say what Eth is. POS makes Eth different than BTC.

Argument used against Solana in SEC v. Coinbase will easily stop an Eth ETF.

Chief of Staff @ Confusion Capital | fmr. web3 @ US House of Reps  | MBA Candidate @ UVA Darden | Writing @ ByteLeg.com 

I agree that the SEC will not approve it.  Will take a lawsuit. The only question is who will be the one to sue the SEC?

Founding Partner @ Castle Island Ventures; co-host of On The Brink w/ Castle Island; previously @Fidelity

Agreed, but even then, how many months or years will the lawsuit take?

Agreed it will be something like this. 

Grayscale filed for approval Oct 2021, was rejected by and sued the SEC in June 2022, won the case August 2023, and ETF was approved January 2024.

Following that timeline it would be 1-1.5 years from the rejection of an Eth ETF, firmly in 2025 territory.

Not clear to me how fast it could move. Best guess is that it would move at around the same pace as the Grayscale BTC case.