The number of vacancies fell to 7.67 million in July, below the forecasts of all experts surveyed by Bloomberg. The number of layoffs per month, on the contrary, increased to 1.76 million - this is a record since March 2023.

Detailed statistics show a decrease in vacancies per unemployed person to 1.1 (in 2022 there were 2) with a low rate of voluntary turnover (2.1%). Thus, on average, working Americans are less confident in their ability to find a new job than they were a couple of years ago, which reduces the pressure on inflation from wages.

These data may affect the Fed's upcoming rate decision - traders estimate the probability of a reduction step of 50 bps instead of 25 bps at 45%. (c)