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eugen 🎭🍄 pfp
eugen 🎭🍄
@madvac
As you all know, Israel assassinated hamas leader in Iran in tehran. Iran was humiliated of course since it happened in the middle of the capital and shows anyone even the highest leaders can be killed, and Iran now vowed revenge, etc, etc. just a summary to explain everything. Now, I want to know, will a war break out in the middle east over this? I have seen many articles about this. But will a war really happens? Who will join against whom? Who has the best potential to win? What will happen to middle east after that.
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Thomas pfp
Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
Blue team: led by Israel, backed by the US and possibly the broader West. Netanyahu is said to be willing to escalate to a full-scale conflict, either because he sees this as an opportunity to end the continued existential threat to Israel, or because he wants to remain in power as long as he can to avoid prosecution, or both. Red team: led by Iran, backed by Russia, China, Turkey, and possibly the broader South, for opportunistic reasons more than ideological ones. Pretends to be willing to escalate to a full-scale conflict but the alternative is to use its habitual proxies (Hezbollah, Shia militias, Houthis, etc) to avoid threatening the regime itself. Back channel diplomacy is supposedly trying to deescalate both sides using a combination of threats and incentives. But a hot war also holds the prospect of a change of regime in Iran which appeals to some
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eugen 🎭🍄 pfp
eugen 🎭🍄
@madvac
hmm.. it's hard for me to formulate, but how much pressure do you think the usa is putting on israel?
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Thomas pfp
Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
Supposedly the US were in favor of surgical strikes against Hamas over a blanket invasion of Gaza, so it would be hard for them to now criticize Israel for assassinating Haniyeh, even if that happened in Tehran. At this point the pressure is on Iran to moderate its response, even if the US can only apply it indirectly
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eugen 🎭🍄 pfp
eugen 🎭🍄
@madvac
totally, thomas. the US stance makes it tricky to criticize israel now
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