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eugen 🎭🍄 pfp
eugen 🎭🍄
@madvac
As you all know, Israel assassinated hamas leader in Iran in tehran. Iran was humiliated of course since it happened in the middle of the capital and shows anyone even the highest leaders can be killed, and Iran now vowed revenge, etc, etc. just a summary to explain everything. Now, I want to know, will a war break out in the middle east over this? I have seen many articles about this. But will a war really happens? Who will join against whom? Who has the best potential to win? What will happen to middle east after that.
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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
Blue team: led by Israel, backed by the US and possibly the broader West. Netanyahu is said to be willing to escalate to a full-scale conflict, either because he sees this as an opportunity to end the continued existential threat to Israel, or because he wants to remain in power as long as he can to avoid prosecution, or both. Red team: led by Iran, backed by Russia, China, Turkey, and possibly the broader South, for opportunistic reasons more than ideological ones. Pretends to be willing to escalate to a full-scale conflict but the alternative is to use its habitual proxies (Hezbollah, Shia militias, Houthis, etc) to avoid threatening the regime itself. Back channel diplomacy is supposedly trying to deescalate both sides using a combination of threats and incentives. But a hot war also holds the prospect of a change of regime in Iran which appeals to some
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Eylon 💨
@eylon.eth
The bottom line is that probably no. "Iran will not start a regional war over an Arab death" Iran uses Hamas, Hezbollah, and other Arab terror organizations as pawns in a larger geopolitical game. This strategy serves a dual purpose: it projects Iranian influence regionally and provides a convenient external threat to unify Iran's diverse population, deterring internal dissent. The regime is dominated by aging revolutionaries from the 1979 era, which views Sunni Muslims (Hamas) and Arabs in general as inferior. They encouraging Arab groups into terrorism and suicide bombings while Iranian hands rarely 'do the dirty work'. These dynamics are shifting, the Iranian leadership are aging boomers, and the population is already dissenting as we've seen with the Mahsa Amini Protests a few years ago. Before the end of the decade the Iranian population will be freed from the grip of Islamic terrorist regime. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahsa_Amini_protests
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