Lucas

@lucas79

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Threads: Tariff Now - U.S. trade-weighted average tariff increased sharply from 2.4% to 22.8% (10 times increase in some areas such as aluminum, steel, and automobiles). Note: Tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum in 2018 caused U.S. construction material prices to increase by 20% and added $3B in annual costs to U.S. automakers (CRS Report, 2020).

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Thread: U.S. Tariff Deep-dive & Next 90 Day Scenario TL;DR - U.S tariff 2.0 is broader and harsher than 2018–2019, but still mainly targets China (impact GDP, inflation, investment, employment and deeply change the industry structure and reshape the rules of the game, factions). - In addition to tariffs, each side's bargaining chips will include economics, security, technology with different weights. What can be seen at this time is that China is not giving in, while the US has exempted the 125% reciprocal tax on electronics. => The U.S trade war game is under great pressure from US technology giants because their factories are mainly located outside the US. - The U.S is playing a high-risk game amid uncertainty economics (sticky inflation, growth slowdown, stagflation and recession risk rises & bond market turmoil) -> U.S Risk = Global Instability Catalyst.

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Where are you go baee 😘

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Look like you are in Da Lat ✨

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Cảm ơn ad nhiều

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So beautiful girl 💖 HPBD 🫶

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Fun fact: Although the U.S central bank has begun reducing rates —with a half percentage point cut last month — investors continue piling into money-market funds. - Now money-market funds are attracting record amounts of cash. It have seen nearly $1.87 trillion of inflows since the Fed started its aggressive interest-rate hiking cycle in March 2022, eventually pushing rates well over 5% and making cash an attractive asset class. -> A lot of cash in the park, the bullish for risk-asset still ahead.

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- Overall, I do not see the correction in risky assets as the start of a downturn. This type of short-term crisis and panic presents good opportunities for bargain hunting, particularly in equities and crypto, which are now available at bigger discounts. If you have spare money to invest, now may be a good time to do so.

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- The "long Magnificent 7" trade remains the most crowded trade for the 18th consecutive month. However, it has become less crowded compared to previous months, with 46% of investors holding this trade in September, down from 53% in August. Additionally, 19% of participants now consider "short China equities" as the most crowded trade, up from 15% in August (it is understandable due to expectations for Chinese growth are at a three-year low).

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- Biggest tail risks: US recession (40%), geopolitical conflict (19%), accelerating inflation (18%), systemic credit event (8%), US election “sweep” (6%) and AI bubble (5%).

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- Tech stocks have the smallest overweight since April 2023.

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- The survey indicated that economy-linked — or so-called cyclical — stocks are likely to benefit from a bigger rate cut on a tactical basis. For now, investors prefer sectors that are considered bond proxies, with exposure to utilities hitting the highest since 2008.

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- Fund managers see a 79% chance of a soft landing as rate cuts support the economy.

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- Global growth expectations improved slightly from August’s survey, but remained pessimistic with a net 42% of participants predicting a weaker economy.

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Title: Key Takeaways From September 2024 Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey. - FED rate cuts has boosted fund managers sentiment for the first time since June, according to a global survey by Bank of America Corp.

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- Overall, I do not see the correction in risky assets as the start of a downturn. This type of short-term crisis and panic presents good opportunities for bargain hunting, particularly in equities and crypto, which are now available at bigger discounts. If you have spare money to invest, now may be a good time to do so.

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Lucas pfp

- The "long Magnificent 7" trade remains the most crowded trade for the 18th consecutive month. However, it has become less crowded compared to previous months, with 46% of investors holding this trade in September, down from 53% in August. Additionally, 19% of participants now consider "short China equities" as the most crowded trade, up from 15% in August (it is understandable due to expectations for Chinese growth are at a three-year low).

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- Biggest tail risks: US recession (40%), geopolitical conflict (19%), accelerating inflation (18%), systemic credit event (8%), US election “sweep” (6%) and AI bubble (5%).

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