Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
If US debt-to-GDP is such a problem, why aren’t US Treasury rates surging and other fiat currencies surging relative to the dollar?
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Les Greys
@les
The blood of battle is normally observed after the war is won or loss, rarely during.
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
That’s not how interest rate future markets work, though. A lot of money to be made if you can correctly predict the downfall.
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Les Greys
@les
I believe we are point to same thing in different ways. The only thing I’d add is that futures markets are normally bounded, like debt markets, with an expected maturity. Same as options. The predictions of those markets are reflected differently than the predictions of black swan style events. what…
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
30 years seems like a long time? https://www.google.com/search?q=30+year+treasury+futures
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Les Greys
@les
Yeah but on the buyer side if you’re shorting the asset you would need to have enough capital to hold the bet till maturity and not go bust until the bet is materialized. And with a balance sheet the size of the US, there are too many unknowns for that buyer to be willing. I think.
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Les Greys
@les
The day we see that I think we’re cooked and so it’ll always be highly talking point but people are too scared to place their fiat there. But if it starts it’ll be a spiral straight down, fast, hard and ugly. I hope it doesn’t but it ain’t looking pretty atm.
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