If US debt-to-GDP is such a problem, why aren’t US Treasury rates surging and other fiat currencies surging relative to the dollar?

The blood of battle is normally observed after the war is won or loss, rarely during.

That’s not how interest rate future markets work, though. A lot of money to be made if you can correctly predict the downfall.

30 years seems like a long time? https://www.google.com/search?q=30+year+treasury+futures

I believe we are point to same thing in different ways. The only thing I’d add is that futures markets are normally bounded, like debt markets, with an expected maturity. Same as options.

The predictions of those markets are reflected differently than the predictions of black swan style events.

what…