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@leohenkels
Look, I'm not positive for the season with my bets, but I'm going to stick with what I know—fading the public. How to fade the public? Let's use UNLV vs. Kansas as an example. First of you don't need CFB knowledge to do this, but it helps frame things. Kansas is a bigger market, has broader Alumni, and is at home - all things contributing to Kansas fans and your "average Joe" CFB fans betting on Kansas. Put simply, they are a bigger name than UNLV. More people who are just looking for a bet will likely side with Kansas. 1st + sign to bet on UNLV. The line opened at -6.5 after their game and stabilized around -7 throughout the week until 9/12. Then look at how it jumped to -9/9.5. This tells us the true spread of the game is around 7, as market makers or "sharps" typically bet right after the odds are released and throughout the week. As the weekend rolls around, bad bettors or "the public" start betting. In this case, the line movement tells us they are jumping on Kansas. Another + sign. Continued...
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@leohenkels
Finally, let's confirm with Action. Action tells us more bets are being placed on Kansas. "Total bets" indicates small fish or the public. Ideally, we want to follow "big bets," or in this case, it would be "total money." You need to subscribe to Action Pro to unlock that feature, but there's another way to tell. If this line had moved out of Kansas's favor to -6 or -5, despite the total bets remaining in favor of Kansas, we would have known that big money was betting on UNLV to push the line down. The line adjusts to money, not total bets. This phenomenon is called "reverse line movement," and it's the best way to "fade the public." It aligns your money with "smart" whales who have an "edge" and are risking a lot of money to confirm their edge. There is no reverse line movement in this game, so we do not have a third positive signal. UNLV is probably worth a small bet, but I'll stay away and risk more on teams that check positive on the 3 signals I detail above.
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@leohenkels
My "fade the public" plays this week (all for 1 unit): Kansas State -6.5 Pitt +2.5 Duke -16 Coastal Carolina -17
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@leohenkels
Finally, another strategy is to follow both the public and sharp bettors. The issue with this is that you're usually getting a terrible closing line value. If whales and small bettors are aligned, you want to buy as early as possible. Or else you get a bad number (Think buying a memecoin at the pico top.) So, while this strategy is usually unadvisable, sometimes you just feel the bet in your bones. Sharp and public bettors are going the same way in the following games (I'll put a small play on each): BAMA -16 U of SC + 6 BC +14.5 That's all, folks!
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@coach
People have been hammering BC. Line sat at +17 at one point early this week! I’m in MA so I can’t bet them but would’ve loved them at +16. Let’s win some money this weekend!
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