Content
@
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
Leo
@leohenkels
Look, I'm not positive for the season with my bets, but I'm going to stick with what I know—fading the public. How to fade the public? Let's use UNLV vs. Kansas as an example. First of you don't need CFB knowledge to do this, but it helps frame things. Kansas is a bigger market, has broader Alumni, and is at home - all things contributing to Kansas fans and your "average Joe" CFB fans betting on Kansas. Put simply, they are a bigger name than UNLV. More people who are just looking for a bet will likely side with Kansas. 1st + sign to bet on UNLV. The line opened at -6.5 after their game and stabilized around -7 throughout the week until 9/12. Then look at how it jumped to -9/9.5. This tells us the true spread of the game is around 7, as market makers or "sharps" typically bet right after the odds are released and throughout the week. As the weekend rolls around, bad bettors or "the public" start betting. In this case, the line movement tells us they are jumping on Kansas. Another + sign. Continued...
7 replies
1 recast
19 reactions
Evan (POAP Guy @ Farcon) 🧾
@evangreenberg
It’s getting harder and harder to know what is public money. All the apps are mostly public, even if some are high bet public and some are low bet public. The sharps bet at Circa, but I don’t know how to get that data. Otherwise, there’s a ton of conflicting data
1 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
Leo
@leohenkels
So true. But at the end of the day. The sharps move the line. Vegas follows them. So I’m just trying to follow line movement and match it up with data I get from Action and Draftkings on total bets to try to find where the sharps are playing. Despite them betting at Circa, their bets move the line for all books.
1 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
Evan (POAP Guy @ Farcon) 🧾
@evangreenberg
Have you heard about spoofing (not sure they’re actually using that word)? Some bettors are moving lines early so that they can come and hammer the other side for a larger amount right before kickoff
1 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
Leo
@leohenkels
Definitely a real issue. But need a ton of size in an illiquid market to do this effectively. NFL and Big NCAAF games unlikely to be effective. Also, run a huge risk with variables here making your worthless on the wrong side: injuries, weather, and unexpected odds change going against your ideal bet.
0 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
