A “Risk Tolerant” Channel

College Football

Look, I'm not positive for the season with my bets, but I'm going to stick with what I know—fading the public. How to fade the public? Let's use UNLV vs. Kansas as an example. 

First of you don't need CFB knowledge to do this, but it helps frame things. Kansas is a bigger market, has broader Alumni, and is at home - all things contributing to Kansas fans and your "average Joe" CFB fans betting on Kansas. Put simply, they are a bigger name than UNLV. More people who are just looking for a bet will likely side with Kansas. 1st + sign to bet on UNLV. 

The line opened at -6.5 after their game and stabilized around -7 throughout the week until 9/12. Then look at how it jumped to -9/9.5. This tells us the true spread of the game is around 7, as market makers or "sharps" typically bet right after the odds are released and throughout the week. As the weekend rolls around, bad bettors or "the public" start betting. In this case, the line movement tells us they are jumping on Kansas. Another + sign. Continued...