we are so early

1/ 
Early Winds Phenomenon:

There is a unique situation that I've seen occur, a few times now particularly with the DMT-NAT mints that are hosted on either Luminex/Unisat, where when you are among the first to mint a highly anticipated drop you may in fact could be less likely to be the first to inscribe.

🧵👇

2/
Though there is an exception, if you are lucky and the block clears as soon as you send at whatever competent s/vb value then by the grace of the mempool you are marked safe. If you are looking to inscribe another batch then as you know, another block, another array of circumstances.

3/
Now, on the other hand, a perplexing issue arises on the block(s) a highly anticipated mint of such likes goes live, for instance, note the remaining inscriptions and live timestamp on Luminex, note the s/vb values on mempool. space.

4/
What's different about this block? The former ones in the mempool have gone through in a span of 8-12 minutes yet this one in particular with the anticipated drop live is taking 25-35 minutes. How can this be a problem for those who got an early wind with no block that luckily insta-sent after sending to inscribe?

5/
At the beginning of the block when you were looking to inscribe a batch lets say s/vb values were 27 and 29 respectively for medium and high prio; throughout the span of that congested block the competent s/vb value for you not to get front run could double to quadruple.

6/
It is very important you ascertain a competent s/vb value to hedge against potentially having someone else front run you, having to accelerate or reinscribe a batch which can shift your predetermined cost of entry.

8/
So because those who have got winds of the lucrative collection later than those who were early their perceived custom s/vb value of what's required to be competent is already higher than anything before it because the block has yet to even close and that puts everyone before that out of the equation.

9/
I remember minting Natcorns on Luminex and I sent 99 s/vb for 25 when high prio was only 24 s/vb at the beginning of the block. By the end of that 30 minute block high prio s/vb was 87. I still got frontran on 4/25 but managed to secure 21.

10/
Whereas others who sent at 40-60 s/vb at the beginning of the block with the same perceived conditions as myself were concerned with the state of their transaction and newfound self-conflict were employing new strategy, while comfortable with the s/vb value I sent, I held tight to bear the outcome.

11/
Not that I'm a genius because I certainly could have ended up overpaying at the close of the block if given the contrary but luckily I ended up with 80%ish of the batch I sent for. All things considered the true nature of the mempool is PvP and things can go either way despite what we prepare for.

12/
I do believe that knowledge and the shared cultivation of it can help us all navigate our ways through web3 effectively and ensure that every moment of our time is as fulfilling as it can be here. These scenarios are so new and no one should be disposed to the risk associated with lack of understanding toward them.

13/
I have had my fair share of mints with this type of structure, and hope that the thread was good food for thought, I dubbed the scenario the: Early Winds Phenomenon. Where in short, being so early could play out adversely relative to s/vb values on a block with certain conditions.

14/
Stay safe, stay sharp, be well. Love yall and have a blessed Week!

7/
To those who catch wind a bit later, in the middle of the block perhaps. The perceived 27 and 29 s/vb values at the beginning of the block are now futile because med and high values are, lets say, 67-71 now and you're already beat because you thought a custom value of 55 was good when high prio was 29.