brypto

Writer, podcaster, and commentator on foreign affairs and politics. Loves history, languages, technology, and philosophy. I’m also on X at Mazmhussain.twitter

Our beloved betting markets did not do great on this one either:

I forget who casted it, but someone here made the great point that political markets don’t actually “predict” outcomes very well

They mostly just track other people’s sentiment until the end and then whiplash to converge with the outcome (mostly just arbitrage at that point)

That’s probably why liquidity is so poor

This is a great post. I followed you. I would be happy if you followed me back.