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https://warpcast.com/~/channel/vandelay
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krel
@krel
Whether agree with premise or not, how would you act on this belief? ’Diversify’ seems like a no-brainer but in this scenario i dont think its obvious usd, stocks or crypto wont go to zero, and my mind goes to physical resources like land? Especially scarce land like a nyc penthouse? (In this scenario im assuming there wont be a full-scale war, everyones dead etc, which is a different and imo less interesting puzzle.)
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SQX
@sqx
Learn to trade options.
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krel
@krel
im a noob but i dont see how options help here? can you spell it out eli5?
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krel
@krel
i do see how it helps, kinda depends on how crazy you go on the "not biz as normal" scale
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SQX
@sqx
So let’s say your time horizon is 2 years. ‘Stuff isn’t priced in liquid markets much longer. Would have to OTC it with an institution. ‘ Buy a delta neutral strategy (calls and puts) in index of choice. For the LEAPS. Most likely a Jan 2027 expiration. You would adjust your deltas on whatever your predefined rules are. ‘Capturing the volatility’ If market goes down in 1 year but you aren’t adjusting deltas. Then it recovers. And you’re just sitting in the same position. Well you lost. And the decay killed you.
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krel
@krel
this is helpful! im only half-jokingly assuming i will hug my children and hope for best rather than trying to thread that needle tho
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SQX
@sqx
I’m more bullish than bearish. But also as scared for prices as Ive been in a real real real Long time. Stresses are real and becoming realer. Had a thought earlier about Money Market funds breaking the buck. Only happened in ‘08. Would mean A-AAA paper starts to roll. Don’t think it gets there. As I stated I’m more bullish than bearish. But having the thought alone is unsettling. This too shall pass. (No reason to be a hero though)
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krel
@krel
sometimes im reminded its a blessing to be poor and not have anything to worry about :D
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