Base

The current upper limit of liquid BTC in the market is approximately 2.2 million, with exchange inventories around 3 million. In the past four months, about 90,000 BTC have been transferred in without being withdrawn, and daily on-chain trading volume is around 120,000 BTC, with about 20,000 BTC transferred into exchanges. If daily BTC spot ETF purchases exceed 20,000 BTC, the probability of price declines is low. If exchange inventories cannot be consistently reduced, the risk of black swan events is proportional to inventories, and circulating BTC will gradually decrease.