Kelly M Reiff
@kelly-reiff
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838 Followers
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The current upper limit of liquid BTC in the market is approximately 2.2 million, with exchange inventories around 3 million. In the past four months, about 90,000 BTC have been transferred in without being withdrawn, and daily on-chain trading volume is around 120,000 BTC, with about 20,000 BTC transferred into exchanges. If daily BTC spot ETF purchases exceed 20,000 BTC, the probability of price declines is low. If exchange inventories cannot be consistently reduced, the risk of black swan events is proportional to inventories, and circulating BTC will gradually decrease. 0 reply
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Analyzing current BTC distribution, we find that out of the total 19,738,165 BTC mined, 12,913,695 have been held for over a year without movement. Global spot ETF holdings account for 985,794 BTC, with the USA holding 912,369. Notably, even when BTC pri 0 reply
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Currently, the crypto market lacks an independent narrative, relying on two main factors for price movements. Firstly, macroeconomics, especially US narratives, influence liquidity and thus crypto prices. Secondly, high-profile events like BTC and ETH spot ETFs gain media attention, potentially driving trading volume. Limited liquidity in this high-interest rate environment favors top assets. Market sentiment improves initially when interest rates drop, barring economic recession. Additionally, the upcoming election cycle could stimulate liquidity, as candidates' promises, whether fulfilled or not, impact market expectations. With the approval of BTC and ETH spot ETFs, crypto market cycles are increasingly aligned with traditional US financial markets, emphasizing the importance of liquidity. 0 reply
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