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Nounish Prof āā§-ā§š©
@nounishprof
One problemāmore than half the voters are women. Iād estimate that less than 20% of polymarket users are women. If itās not accurate, thatās likely the reason. Iād be stunned if this is a landslide for either candidate. Itās likely coming down to one or two states that could go either way. (GA and NC in particular) Polls ā especially phone pollsālikely skew older and closer in gender split. Prediction markets skew younger and male, and include a lot of players outside the US. And yes, polls can be manipulated just like markets. My guess is the polls are closer in accuracy and this election is a coin flip atm. I do love seeing @polymarket in the national discourse though!
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andrei
@andreitr.eth
Iāve been pretty skeptical of these numbers for similar reasons. The probability can be screwed by placing a higher bet. Itās like an alternative reality where you can shape probability with cash.
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Kieran Daniels š©
@kdaniels.eth
Prediction markets are not to be considered āaccurateā until they are close to resolving or there is a major inside move. This is the point. But because of this they are almost always the most accurate before the event occurs. Everyone in this thread is thinking of prediction markets as normal polls. They donāt mean anything until they mean everything and the closer to the event the more accurate they will become. You could bet all your money in the world that in about 2-3 weeks Polymarket will be correct against all other options.
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Nounish Prof āā§-ā§š©
@nounishprof
Yup totally get that ā itās very different from survey data and shouldnāt be looked at as predictive until we get closer. Itās interesting to see how itās being treated by the media and will be interesting to see if it had impact on the vote. I could see a scenario where it impacts behavior ā voters stay home because they think someone has a big lead etc; or on the opposite side it motivates some to vote who may have stayed home due to fear that it may be right.
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Nounish Prof āā§-ā§š©
@nounishprof
Also ā if you look at that gap between the polls and polymarket that seems to be a clear buying opportunity as I think that gap just has to close in the next couple weeks. Even if this is the outcome, buying now & selling prior to resolution should result in a profit. NFA lol
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andrei
@andreitr.eth
I donāt disagree with you. Prediction markets are effective at showing the preferences of the participating majority. In 2016, the media was biased toward Hillary, and I wonder if this time the betting markets are biased toward Trump.
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