Johna2an.eth on Warpcast

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💸 Invested 50k in launchpads? Portfolio melting? Don't worry, I've got you covered. Avoid the flops and discover where to profit in this thread. 1/19

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PvP and Liquidity Crunch VC Insight: Avoid new launches. - In this tough market, tokens on @MEXC_Official and @bitgetglobal fall to VC purchase prices due to liquidity issues. - MMs aren’t driving organic growth or price surges. - Even heavy marketing fails. 2/19

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The Hunger Games of Liquidity Extraction Thesis: Despite spending $100-200k on marketing and $200-300k on liquidity and market making, these efforts often fail. - KOLs are now wary about promoting projects; only stablecoins seem to persuade them. 3/19

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- Initial large spending on first listing doesn't benefit projects. - The listing consumes a significant supply and stablecoins. - MMs, whether using loan-and-option or retainer-based models, often countertrade with insider info. 4/19

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Exchange Games Thesis: Listing requires the project to maintain the price level at 3x-5x from the listing price on Tier 2 exchanges and above for 2-3 months. - This process is necessary to clean the exchange's reputation regarding the non-scam nature of the project. 5/19

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- It also requires a reserve insurance deposit of 150k-200k-300k-500k-1M and more, which cannot be withdrawn from the exchange. - MM trades on the project's account on the other side, collecting a tasty piece of liquidity on their own account. 6/19

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- The exchange makes "ON THE STACK" those tokens it received from the listing (how else would they earn). - New methods to protect exchanges were recently invented: - @binance: 12 Month Cliff + 12-24 Month Vesting - @okxofficial: 6 Month Cliff + 6-12 Month Vesting 7/19

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Valuations are a bit overpriced. Thesis: If you think that after listing a project from Dao Maker, Ape Terminal, and other Launchpads there will be exit liquidity after you, you as retail are the exit liquidity. 8/19

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- Funds enter at valuations 2-3 times lower than Launchpad, with average upside prices of $10-15M up to $45-80M FDV. - Launchpad audiences already provide 2-3x exit liquidity. 9/19

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- During listings, maintaining these levels ensures a good launchpad reputation, keeps CEXes happy, and allows funds to unload well after lockups. 10/19

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Top Performers are the worst quality projects Thesis: There is an inverse correlation between the quality/performance of a project and the tier of investors it raised from. - Tier 3-4 funds/no-name funds that enter investment rounds are usually KOLs syndicates. 11/19

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- KOLs coverage and marketing support are the driving forces behind such an entry. - 5-10% chance that the raised capital (or at least part of it) comes from outside the crypto world and there won't be capital rotation. 12/19

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- Such projects don't stay afloat for long and drown in pitiful dreams of a prolonged lifespan of their startup. - The burn rate of the marketing budget is much higher than the income from the services and products they offer. 13/19

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Final: Top List from VC Thesis: At this stage of the market, CEX Launchpad Platforms win according to the high-engagement rate scale (remember they are devious). - Prioritize those projects that have raised top investments and received roadshows on @okxofficial and @binance. 14/19

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- @coinlistofficial is now a marketing agency as secondary exchange volumes dropped. They offer services like newsletter listings, re-tweets, onchain campaigns, and events similar to Galxe, costing around $50k versus $100-150k on other platforms. 15/19

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- Interesting to mention: @fjordfoundry (top investment and cool opportunities to wrap their IDO into a node sale/community auction system). Last OK list: - Tier 1: @daomaker and @apeterminal - Tier 2 and below: @chain_gpt, @redkitepad, @polkastarter, and so on... 16/19

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How to Earn: Memecoin Degening Thesis: Without liquidity flow, buy launchpad tokens. This strengthens the degen arena, balancing conditions for both Degens and VCs with memecoins. 17/19

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- new direction brings risks but also stable incomes - further decline may melt your launchpad token portfolio - discretionary trading yields nothing without additional stimulation and cross-platform utilities for these platforms 18/19

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I hope you've found this thread helpful. Follow me @johna2an for more. Like/Repost the quote below if you can... 19/19

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