Founders

💸 Invested 50k in launchpads? Portfolio melting?

Don't worry, I've got you covered. 

Avoid the flops and discover where to profit in this thread.

1/19

@-:/ 🎶💤 Head of Research at YTWO Fund | y2.finance | DMs are open | Opinions are my own | {DYOR} | {NFA}

PvP and Liquidity Crunch

VC Insight: Avoid new launches.

- In this tough market, tokens on @MEXC_Official
and @bitgetglobal fall to VC purchase prices due to liquidity issues. 

- MMs aren’t driving organic growth or price surges. 

- Even heavy marketing fails.

2/19

The Hunger Games of Liquidity Extraction

Thesis: Despite spending $100-200k on marketing and $200-300k on liquidity and market making, these efforts often fail.

- KOLs are now wary about promoting projects; only stablecoins seem to persuade them.

3/19

- Initial large spending on first listing doesn't benefit projects.

- The listing consumes a significant supply and stablecoins.

- MMs, whether using loan-and-option or retainer-based models, often countertrade with insider info.

4/19

Exchange Games

Thesis: Listing requires the project to maintain the price level at 3x-5x from the listing price on Tier 2 exchanges and above for 2-3 months.

- This process is necessary to clean the exchange's reputation regarding the non-scam nature of the project.

5/19

- It also requires a reserve insurance deposit of 150k-200k-300k-500k-1M and more, which cannot be withdrawn from the exchange.

- MM trades on the project's account on the other side, collecting a tasty piece of liquidity on their own account.

6/19

I'm a little teapot who didn't fill out my bio

The only app you’ll need for 'all things crypto'.

- The exchange makes "ON THE STACK" those tokens it received from the listing (how else would they earn).

- New methods to protect exchanges were recently invented:
  - @binance: 12 Month Cliff + 12-24 Month Vesting
  - @okxofficial: 6 Month Cliff + 6-12 Month Vesting

7/19

- Funds enter at valuations 2-3 times lower than Launchpad, with average upside prices of $10-15M up to $45-80M FDV.

- Launchpad audiences already provide 2-3x exit liquidity.

9/19

- During listings, maintaining these levels ensures a good launchpad reputation, keeps CEXes happy, and allows funds to unload well after lockups.

10/19

Top Performers are the worst quality projects

Thesis: There is an inverse correlation between the quality/performance of a project and the tier of investors it raised from.

- Tier 3-4 funds/no-name funds that enter investment rounds are usually KOLs syndicates.

11/19

- KOLs coverage and marketing support are the driving forces behind such an entry.

- 5-10% chance that the raised capital (or at least part of it) comes from outside the crypto world and there won't be capital rotation.

12/19

- Such projects don't stay afloat for long and drown in pitiful dreams of a prolonged lifespan of their startup.

- The burn rate of the marketing budget is much higher than the income from the services and products they offer.

13/19

Final: Top List from VC

Thesis: At this stage of the market, CEX Launchpad Platforms win according to the high-engagement rate scale (remember they are devious).

- Prioritize those projects that have raised top investments and received roadshows on @okxofficial and @binance.

14/19

- @coinlistofficial is now a marketing agency as secondary exchange volumes dropped. They offer services like newsletter listings, re-tweets, onchain campaigns, and events similar to Galxe, costing around $50k versus $100-150k on other platforms.

15/19

- Interesting to mention: @fjordfoundry (top investment and cool opportunities to wrap their IDO into a node sale/community auction system).

Last OK list:
  - Tier 1: @daomaker and @apeterminal 
  - Tier 2 and below: @chain_gpt, @redkitepad, @polkastarter, and so on...

16/19

How to Earn: Memecoin Degening

Thesis: Without liquidity flow, buy launchpad tokens. This strengthens the degen arena, balancing conditions for both Degens and VCs with memecoins.

17/19

- new direction brings risks but also stable incomes

- further decline may melt your launchpad token portfolio

- discretionary trading yields nothing without additional stimulation and cross-platform utilities for these platforms

18/19

I hope you've found this thread helpful.

Follow me @johna2an for more.

Like/Repost the quote below if you can...

19/19

Valuations are a bit overpriced.

Thesis: If you think that after listing a project from Dao Maker, Ape Terminal, and other Launchpads there will be exit liquidity after you, you as retail are the exit liquidity.

8/19