Economics

I may sound like a broken clock, but the CRE market is still not doing well and we might see the results of it this year

🇧🇷🇺🇸-  Book: Making Things Think: https://holloway.com/mtt. Investor in Wander, Carry, Footprint, Merkle Manufactory (Farcaster), Dynamic, Paragraph.

Do you think CRE will ever return to “normal”? Not clear what shoe is left to drop here

Some argue that if a recession hits, some companies will make workers go back to the office and that will make the commercial real estate go back to normal 

I don’t think so

There’s no putting the genie back in the bottle (esp cause big tech is straight up laying off thousands)

But I figured we’d priced in the remote factor

I think it’s not priced in because CRE has a lag in terms of contracts. So *i think* we’re just now starting to see those contracts coming up for renewal, causing this.

🤔 🍵 Founder & CEO of Artisan Strategies, a growth consultancy.

That’s a fair point. 

My understanding is there isn’t really a “fast” way to price it in on the base level. 

So it’s easy to stay overly optimistic until renewals/cancellations actually start happening.

But if we’re all aware of that lag, shouldn’t it be priced in?

Or are you saying we’ve been too optimistic about rates of renewal?