jesse.base.eth 🔵
@jessepollak
1/ I frequently get asked "how much will EIP4844 reduce @base fees" — and my best answer right now is 2-5x, but it's impossible to predict for sure. why? because the /ethereum "blobspace" that L2s will use is priced based on market demand... and we don't know what that will be.
3 replies
2 recasts
25 reactions
jesse.base.eth 🔵
@jessepollak
2/ the best analysis of the dynamics i've seen is: https://ethresear.ch/t/eip-4844-fee-market-analysis/15078 by @davidecrapis. if we just transpose existing demand, it looks really good (10x+)! but since blobspace can be used for anything, it's not clear what the stable equilibrium for demand will be.
1 reply
0 recast
4 reactions
jesse.base.eth 🔵
@jessepollak
3/ Polymarket just launched a prediction market for pricing 30 days post launch. this has some early signal that we can expect ~$0.20-$2.00/blob range, which if that was the case, would mean a very significant reduction (10x+). https://polymarket.com/event/gas-price-per-blob-1-month-after-eip-4844?tid=1706226301005
1 reply
0 recast
2 reactions
jesse.base.eth 🔵
@jessepollak
4/ so that's why you are not seeing me commit to specific numbers. but no matter where it lands, the exciting thing about 4844 is it starts us down a path for increasing blobspace, so we can keep up with demand! https://ethresear.ch/t/peerdas-a-simpler-das-approach-using-battle-tested-p2p-components/16541
1 reply
0 recast
2 reactions