Ethereum

1/ I frequently get asked "how much will EIP4844 reduce 
@base fees" — and my best answer right now is 2-5x, but it's impossible to predict for sure.

why? because the /ethereum "blobspace" that L2s will use is priced based on market demand... and we don't know what that will be.

2/ the best analysis of the dynamics i've seen is: https://ethresear.ch/t/eip-4844-fee-market-analysis/15078 by @davidecrapis. if we just transpose existing demand, it looks really good (10x+)!

but since blobspace can be used for anything, it's not  clear what the stable equilibrium for demand will be.

ethereum protocol research /ethrd + Crypto x AI /dacc 

@base builder #001; onchain cities w/ OAK & city3

3/ Polymarket just launched a prediction market for pricing 30 days post launch.

this has some early signal that we can expect ~$0.20-$2.00/blob range, which if that was the case, would mean a very significant reduction (10x+).

3/ Polymarket just launched a prediction market for pricing 30 days post launch.

this has some early signal that we can expect ~$0.20-$2.00/blob range, which if that was the case, would mean a very significant reduction (10x+).

https://polymarket.com/event/gas-price-per-blob-1-month-after-eip-4844?tid=1706226301005

4/ so that's why you are not seeing me commit to specific numbers. 

but no matter where it lands, the exciting thing about 4844 is it starts us down a path for increasing blobspace, so we can keep up with demand!

4/ so that's why you are not seeing me commit to specific numbers. 

but no matter where it lands, the exciting thing about 4844 is it starts us down a path for increasing blobspace, so we can keep up with demand!

https://ethresear.ch/t/peerdas-a-simpler-das-approach-using-battle-tested-p2p-components/16541

- How much do we see a uni transfer going down?

- How much do we see a USDC transfer going down?

- How much do we see a balance send decreasing?

unclear from reading around what the actual end user impact is.

5/ shoutout to @jayb for asking this and prompting this thread

5/ shoutout to @jayb for asking this and prompting this thread

https://warpcast.com/jayb/0x5d5526c2

Great interesting thread @jessepollak! I bet that fee reduction will be big at the start, but will surely start to reduce as time passes by and L2s start getting more attention due to cheaper fees. Interesting times ahead 😀