John Gazzini
@gazzini
Polymarket isn't a good truth machine. It's just the best truth machine that's ever existed.
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Leeward Bound
@leewardbound
how can that be your takeaway? it was at best completely uncommital and uncertain, and at worst just objectively horribly wrong until the last possible minute. hard to take people seriously when they cheer polymarket here, seems like people speak highly of it and laud it's accuracy just because it's onchain
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jd đș
@jdl
babe didnât you say it told us who would win weeks ago
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Leeward Bound
@leewardbound
? babe i don't think i ever said anything of the sort
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jd đș
@jdl
> "trump wins" was leading polymarket for the past few weeks perhaps we misunderstood what that meant
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Leeward Bound
@leewardbound
oh i see, no it was i who misunderstood you (thought you meant that i said it weeks ago) no what i was saying there was, what good is that data point, when it wavered so hard? it wasn't decisive. it flipped kamala all thru october and it was 45-55 (not 50-50 like I originally said) in the week leading up, which could be interpreted in a lot of ways, but still seems to imply a close race this was a landslide victory, but this graph does not show any amount of certainty, it's simply not a good predictor polymarket shows feelings, not facts
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jd đș
@jdl
that all holds water. no argument about the variability the good is demonstrated by the upside captured in having taken that position. if we were willing to put chips on that felt that Donnie was going to win far enough in the past, then we captured meaningful value i.e. polymarket has demonstrated that certainty isnât relevant to some predictions
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Leeward Bound
@leewardbound
fully agreed on (nearly) all points here, but my position is that most others aren't employing your nuance people out there saying "polymarket was right", or "prediction markets are more accurate than polling", when to your point, the only thing we know for certain is that some amount of bets were placed on DJT and some amount of bets were placed on Kamala. it's feels, it's not facts, and it's highly subject to influence by both irrational actors (nearly everyone lmao) and by non-confidence-based signals (eg hedge bets, market manipulation, etc)
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