Ethereum

On ETH ETF demand

The ETH ETF is scheduled to launch within a week, and the market is closely watching its initial demand. According to a clip from 
@BanklessHQ
 , both 
@BitwiseInvest
  and 
@glxyresearch
  estimate that Ethereum ETFs will capture 30% of Bitcoin ETF net flow, while 
@Rewkang
's analysis sets 15% as the base case.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=xaP5d1pmncY&t=2642s

Bitcoin ETF flow reached $1.1 billion in the first 5 days, and the initial daily flow of ETH ETFs will determine market direction in July.

Factors such as a lack of new crypto-native tech innovation & yield (staking), and the rise of Solana may suppress demand for ETH ETFs. However, robust basis trade could provide upside risks. I believe in Ethereum's long-term value and its ecosystem, but we need to be realistic.

First 5days of ETH ETF flow scenarios
- Bear (10%): $110m
- Base (15%): $165m
- Bull (30%): $330m

I won't be surprised if organic demand for ETH ETFs stays below 10% of Bitcoin ETFs amid the ongoing AI bull market.