The Flaws of Prediction and Why Polymarket Might Not Be a Reliable Indicator for Crypto Market Movement
Predictions often fail, particularly in financial markets. Why? Because making accurate predictions requires getting two critical variables right:
X: What will happen (event)
Y: How the market will react (market response)
The formula "If X, then Y" sounds simple, but even the most intelligent persons frequently struggle to get both variables right.
Currently, the U.S. election is seen as a significant factor influencing crypto market movements. The prevailing belief is that if Trump wins (X), it will be positive for crypto (Y). Conversely, if Harris wins (X), it could be negative for crypto (Y). Of note, crypto prices often correlate with the U.S. presidential odds on @polymarket , where less than 0.1% of the total American electorate wager on political outcomes. This small sample size makes Polymarket an unreliable predictor of events (X), and market reactions (Y) could also defy expectations (con't) 1 reply
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