Jared 🎩 on Warpcast

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Jared 🎩 pfp

No one believes trump on this issue. I don't understand why he's pissing off the pro-life vote.

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Krrbby.eth pfp

Because he stands to gain nothing by pushing a fed ban? It’s pretty simple duh.

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Jared 🎩 pfp

Except those who are pro choice want a fed ban. He could upset them and cause then to stay home. I don’t think these statements move the undecided pro choice vote.

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Krrbby.eth pfp

Can you rephrase? I can’t be understanding you right cause this doesn’t make sense

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Jared 🎩 pfp

Sorry. Pro life wants a federal ban. I don’t think coming out saying he’s against a fed ban will do anything but upset his pro life voters.

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Krrbby.eth pfp

Nah dude bad take. Your numbers are all off and outdated. 100% “pure” pro lifers are a v small minority within the party and not that many single issue pro lifers now. He already delivered for them on this. It’s not 2016 anymore. Not alienating moderates is more important. Zeitgeist has changed.

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Jared 🎩 pfp

I’m not saying it’s a huge number. But it’s die hards who knock on doors and help drive the vote. You can see their power with how often he has already flipped flopped on abortion. I don’t see that him saying he won’t do a federal ban moves undecided voters who lean pro-choice.

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Krrbby.eth pfp

You completely misunderstand the internal politics within the republicans, (not to mention that their “ground game” has a slightly different approach than dems.) Overturning Roe was more of a judicial meta issue anyways, regardless of the “narrative” around it.

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Jared 🎩 pfp

The first article supports your take but I don’t see it. But previous articles say otherwise. I guess we will see in Nov with turnout. https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/wireStory/anti-abortion-leaders-undeterred-trump-time-hed-veto-114445579 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/08/29/lila-rose-abortion-trump-interview-00176619

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Krrbby.eth pfp

Think of the election as being just in the 7 swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin Think of the populations, demographics, issues, etc for just these states. Where are the margins? This is better context for analyzing both campaigns’ decisions.

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Jared 🎩 pfp

What voter will trust anything Trump says about abortion? He’s the president that overturned Roe. He’ll never get the pro choice vote. Maybe he can convince those that abortion is a lower priority but I think this will do more harm than good for him.

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Krrbby.eth pfp

Your estimates are off so your calculus will be off my friend. There’s a lot of nuance in any multifaceted coalition. Study the populations. Study the margins. Then the math will make more sense.

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Krrbby.eth pfp

You greatly overestimate both the number and the influence of the “hardcore pro life” people

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Jared 🎩 pfp

I don’t know that I’m overestimating their number, more that he’s going after an audience that he can’t win. He’s losing the pro choice vote and he’s doing a last minute push to convince them that he’s not that bad on abortion. They won’t believe him.

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