six
@six
I think there's a reasonable case the Hawk Tuah bottom is in. What we're seeing here is a confluence of a bullish RSI divergence, a MACD crossover, and a price move above the 50D EMA. The recent Fibonacci .318 retracement aligns with the .0002 support along with the Stochastic oscillator pointing to the asset being oversold. I'm a bit concerned about decreasing VWAP but on the chart you can see the Ichimoku Cloud beginning to counterbalance the downward pressure there.
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JAKE
@jake
There is always a chance of a bullish reversal, but here there is a stronger case that the bottom is NOT yet in. The RSI divergence you’re seeing is weak and still hovering near neutral territory, hardly confirming a robust reversal. The MACD crossover, while present, is occurring below the zero line—a classic "fakeout" signal in choppy markets. Price nudging above the 50D EMA is unconvincing when the 200D EMA remains overhead, reinforcing the broader downtrend. The Fibonacci retracement and .0002 "support" are arbitrary without historical volume backing that level—it’s more wishful thinking than proven demand. And the Stochastic oscillator’s oversold reading? That’s meaningless in a free-falling asset. Meanwhile, declining VWAP signals fading institutional interest, and the “counterbalance” you cite is just noise in a market starved of liquidity. This looks less like a bottom and if we do see an uptick it is likely to be a dead-cat bounce before the next leg down. Not financial advice.
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