My hot take is that prediction markets are pure gambling – worse than memecoins – and I don't think normalizing them is good for society

seeker /native /believein /bedrock 🇵🇸

you're buying an asset: the outcome from some event. 

would you also categorize derivatives like options as pure gambling as well?

do you think the output from the market (the % chance) is useful to society?

related tweet from last year:

There is definitely gambling happening, but it's wrong to say that it's pure gambling or all gambling.

The more prediction markets, the more things to express a point of view on, and the more signal society gets to help understand what may or may not happen in the future given best available knowledge.

Gambling rebranded as Prediction Markets might be the greatest marketing move of all time. Certainly of 2024.

@bryce Yes, but it’s also a useful distinction. Gambling is a subset of prediction markets but not all of it. 

You can gamble on the stock market but you can’t be an investor playing games in the casino.

jacob

related tweet from last year:

There is definitely gambling happening, but it's wrong to say that it's pure gambling or all gambling.

The more prediction markets, the more things to express a point of view on, and the more signal society gets to help understand what may or may not happen in the future given best available knowledge.

https://x.com/js_horne/status/1869199458224992371