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Ithaca Protocol

@ithacaprotocol

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📈Ithaca Protocol Market Update ► Equities weaker but bonds mildly stronger as is the $ ( this is where risk lives these days ) ► Seeing TSLA rallying on back of ' easing up safety rules for self driving vehicles ' (among these: cars being driven without rearview mirrors. Yes, regulation is costly, maybe less tariffs bingo, more deregulation) ► ⁠Some Monero action and while SNB rejects Bitcoin in reserves, ARK gets the headlines it courts by targeting ' $2.4m BTC price by 2030 ' ► ⁠Huge earnings week ( Apple, Amazon, Msoft, Meta and 469 more > 2nln mkt cap ) capped by NFP on Friday ► Canada national election: US / Canada trade is bigger than Canada inter-provincial trade
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Ithaca Spaces: Market Report ⚡️Now Live on X https://x.com/i/spaces/1OdKrDNmMelJX
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📈Ithaca Protocol Market Update ► Risk assets continue their healing; treasuries stronger across the curve ► Trump’s 100 days approaching, a publicity and self promotion generational CS talent should have something in store ( ‘ substantial deals coming soon ’ ) ► Mag7 valuations have substantially reset; buyback window opening, systematic investors have done their selling ( but hedge levels slowly getting less expensive ), this was Mag7’s best week in 3 years ► US Month end pension fund and allocators equity buying estimated 93rd percentile since 2005 ► Inflation expectations at multi decade highs, consumer sentiment under pressure ► Sen Lummis throwing cold water ( and calling for justified more action and accountability ) on Fed’s renewed crypto guidance
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📈Ithaca Protocol Market Update ► Hammack, Waller: Rate cuts coming ( no surprise there, by hook or by crook, the administration will get its cuts, seems though irreversible damage taking place to get there ) ► 21 Capital now complementing Bitcoin ETFs and Strategy ► Gold selloff, vol leaking, treasury curve uniformly lower signifying ‘ Trump fought the bond market and the bond market won ’ ; there is a non-falsifiable version of 8D chess here with administration trying to pry even Russia away from China’s orbit ( almost lost cause, this can be a treatise ) ► Fed announces withdrawal of guidance to banks regarding crypto assets and ‘ dollar tokens ’ ► MOVE lowest since April 2nd. This again will have been a bad dream to be mentioned along other dramatic market episodes
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📈Ithaca Protocol Market Update ► Trump ‘ chickening out ’ trending on Weibo; 4D chess in trouble as Japan balking at deal and damage to the real economy unfolding in real-time. Market sees through and has stabilized in all red zones, is oversold and crypto anticipating inevitable easing ► Bessent’s presser was not what the doctor ordered; starting as a strategist rather than a client facing person catches up with you ► Trump’s approval ratings taking the expected hit post honeymoon and the big reveal of ‘ winging it based on ( correct ) instincts ’ vs reality disconnect ► Market breadth signals market bottom too ► Research reports by Citi and JPM on stablecoins; crypto’s killer app has been with us for some time ► ‘ US equity selloff driven by aggressive derisking by hedge funds; not much foreign selling and domestics have been buying ’ ( hint: HFs need to cover at some point ) ► Yes, new SEC chairman who is a notable crypto advocate is not just a 1 day headline
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📈Ithaca Protocol Market Update ► Trifecta: Trump ‘ no intention to firing Powell ’ , ‘ no hardball with China ’ , ‘ stock market up nicely ’ , Bessent ‘ unsustainable situation with China ’ ; specifics on potential trade deal with India are genuinely a good and overdue deal, stocks up, curve twist flattening ► Gold hands off mantle to Bitcoin; Cantor / Bitfinex / Tether rumored Bitcoin accumulation bill lending a hand and ETF slows turning strong; even ETH outperforming ► IMF downgrades global growth outlook ► US manufacturing sector sentiment and caper survey at continuing downward drift ( as well as European consumer confidence though; Asian trade readings still upbeat due to shipment frontloading ) ► Trump Media announcing partnership with crypto.com and ETF provider underlines the alternate universe timeline we are experiencing
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► EMB ( biggest hard currency EM Bond ETF ) on track for langtest monthly withdrawal since Oct 2023
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📈Ithaca Protocol Market Update ► ‘ Equities down, bonds down ( many sightings of the bear steepener unicorn ) dollar down, oil down ’ ► ‘ Only 8 companies have issued earnings guidance; 3 month guidance on pace for worst since COVID pandemic ’ according to WSJ ► Alt coins had had bit of a wind with OTHERS.D slowly off bottom; not anymore ► Taking stock as per @jnordvig; a strategic move away from the U.S.. bear steepening / twist in a bad equity market, EUR RR favoring EUR calls, real yields at highs while growth expectations getting downgraded. Trump 1.0 can’t show up with his cape soon enough ► CFTC seeking public comments on perps ► Setup is very decent for a bounce, not just for ‘ turnaround ’ Tuesday. The bond market is playing its role as bogeyman to perfection ► Tesla isn’t anymore the centre of retail attention but weakness in that ( and profit taking on Hertz ) don’t leave much to celebrate
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► Crypto sentiment as bad as any time for a very long time but at the very least dollar weakness should translate 1 to 1
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📈Ithaca Protocol Market Update ► No quick Japan trade agreement; art of the deal narrative under some pressure, ‘ U.S. exceptionalism over / let’s sell $ and US assets ’ in full swing including long bond selloff ( crypto becoming a ‘ US asset ’ proxy with the full throated endorsement of the administration, bad timing ) ► Dollar weakness this morning alongside equity futures getting sold; market doesn’t like the Powell removal threats ( pricing it as the Erdogan playbook; $ only outperforming TRY ). Powell won’t necessarily be removed but he will change his policies imminently ► Positioning indicators still look as extreme as Q1 2009 and Covid; asymmetric positioning on positive catalysts ► Vol continuing to leak out, some of it will be priced in again on a day with most markets closed ► Enough leading and coincident indicators flashing recession red; credit markets lot closer to pricing it right now
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