politics

People are quick to dismiss Polymarket odds but they're missing two things:

1. The shift is real according to Real Clear Politics swing state polls. Harris is on a downward trend since she adopted conservative talking points.

2. While forecast shows a Trump win within the margin of error, it's normal for expectation to be exaggerated in prediction markets. Similar in other betting sites.

I told you.

Most recent Real Clear Politics polling average. Not Polymarket, not other prediction markets either.

Liberals can ignore data at their own risk, but the more Harris leans right, the worse she does. This is exactly what happened to H. Clinton.

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Power consolidation=evil.

Yep, RCP is the way. I think it is even better than Five Thirty Eight

I like pleasure spiked with blockchain and music is my aeroplane. It's my aeroplane. @pizzadao underboss & /politics contributor. Featured in "Number Go Up"

Yeah sometimes simple avg works better than overcomplocating the analysis

538 does a little bit of averaging but they include low quality polls. They do a modeling thing which I think is kind of silly.

Look at the list of the polls they are averaging compared to RCP.

So I used to do sth similar to this in my old job (a deeper data science job), you gotta do some normalization & demo-redistribution on poll data. But 538 overcomplicates it such that it turns into a black box & then becomes hard to adjust on changing factors (prev elections vs the next one). Didn't know they also included low quality polls.