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evmlion
@evmlion.eth
Polymarket prediction markets for the ETH ETF don't work. ETH holders use these as a hedge disproportionately. If CT influencers would read ethfinance they would know that https://x.com/evan_ss6/status/1768053097283060093?s=46
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Manator.eth 🎩🍖💊🍓
@manator
What’s you perspective on the ETF odds?
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evmlion
@evmlion.eth
Double than polymarket at least
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Harpocryptes
@harpocryptes
Did you buy some on polymarket? ;)
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evmlion
@evmlion.eth
I'm long ETH. If you're an ETH bull that's more upside than buying from polymarket
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Harpocryptes
@harpocryptes
2x in two months (in your estimation, in average) is pretty good EV. Plus in principle you could use your ETH as collateral to borrow (a small amount of) stables to bet on polymarket to keep the ETH upside at the same time.
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evmlion
@evmlion.eth
You're forgetting taxes. Lots of tax implications that make it unprofitable for many people to do what you're suggesting
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Harpocryptes
@harpocryptes
Which taxes (apart from the possible betting gains), given that the ETH is not sold? Just curious.
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evmlion
@evmlion.eth
If you collateralize it you're using it for economic gain. You're entering grey zone. In some European countries might be taxed at personal income tax vs 0 tax rate once you sell. Not going to risk.
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