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The Grill Sergeant

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The Grill Sergeant
@grillsergeant
A major cause for concern about potential further downside USDT Dominance Weekly The weekly close yesterday was a significant break of trend that leaves 2 possibilities. 1) the breakout confirms this week. This would mean that it likely gets worse and that a recovery takes several months at minimum. 2) This weeks candle stays how it is now or dips lower, which would give the impression of a false breakout/reversal. That would mean we likely rally for a bit.
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NAK update Followed the lower path. Tapped the top of the support zone and had a strong bounce. You want to see a continued bounce from here. If it chops sideways or slowly up here, it will increase the odds of a breakdown
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NAK update Followed the lower path. Tapped the top of the support zone and had a strong bounce. You want to see a continued bounce from here. If it chops sideways or slowly up here, it will increase the odds of a breakdown
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And holy shit everything flipped green since I started messaging here 💀
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ETH Touched the 2018 bull market highs earlier.
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BTC $74K was front ran at around 74,500 and has already bounced nearly 4K. If nothing else, markets are due for a bear market rally soon. A rally may not mean all time highs again, but still opportunities to profit.
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S&P 500 I am short on time this morning, but want to share this. S&P 500 nearly touched the 2022 high today, which is just above a MAJOR trend line. I am DCAing more of sidelined cash today. It could get worse, so I am only doing like 20-25% of cash today spread across some stocks and crypto majors.
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COIN This previous post is aging well. COIN has hit a full .618 retrace of bear market low to cycle high. Big support level here. Plus BTC showing strength during this crash. Time to start buying g COIN back imo.
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Something that makes me feel good about holding BTC. S&P just tapped the August panic low. The August low for BTC was under 50K. It is currently holding strong at 83K.
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BTD Dominance <:hidethepain:1036325838146252830> On 3/27, said this is favoring an upward move. We have been seeing it. The end of pain for alts is not in sight soon if this flips purple zone to support imo.
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BTC The big tarrif news is upon us, so far it looks like a fake break of trend line and retest of bear flag break down. Doesn't look great unless we can get a close above.
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Raoul Pal chart One of the best arguments that a BTC bull run will continue. What this chart shows is the M2 money supply (black) vs. BTC price. The M2 money supply has a 10 week lead time. As you can see, the price of BTC follows the money supply VERY closely on a 10 week delay. The money supply has been on a run up the last 10 weeks. There is still a possibility that something breaks economically, sending prices lower. This would also likely mark M2 popping off to 'fix' whatever breaks. Think Covid.
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BTC Downward trend held as resistance. Now the question is: Does the 76,600 low get taken out? If so, I talked about lower targets in the other posts. If a higher low is created, then look for another push to the trend line.
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USDT Dominance Weekly - A more hopeful chart. Last week confirmed a weekly top candle, which is also appearing to form another major pivot point lower high. The previous pivot highs were in September 2023 (right beofre the start of the bull run) and Aug/Sept 2024 (right before the move above 100K)
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The Grill Sergeant
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USDT Dominance Weekly - A more hopeful chart. Last week confirmed a weekly top candle, which is also appearing to form another major pivot point lower high. The previous pivot highs were in September 2023 (right beofre the start of the bull run) and Aug/Sept 2024 (right before the move above 100K)
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BTC Dominance This has been in a bullish consolidation at resistance for weeks. A big move could be building up here.
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Without some major economic or crypto crash event, I don't see it going lower than that.
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BTC Nothing changed from previous post. This is a bearish flag pattern going right into resistance. Probabilities favor rejection soon. Confirmation above that trend line will be the first step toward getting back to a bull run. Looking at the weekly chart. The 74Kish level for a retrace feels a little too obvious at this point, so I want to consider some other possibilities. A) The low is already in and 74K level was front run leaving many orders unfilled in that area. In this case, a pull back to just under 80K creating a higher low than the March low is very possible before breaking through the downward trend. If the March low is lost, then one of the possibilities below becomes much more probable. B) The 74K level gets blasted through on a quick move below 70K. C) Choppy down trend continues. I could see the top of the pink zone getting retested or the yellow trend line which started in December 2022 getting tapped. These two intersect at around $61,500.
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NAK No confirmation of close above 1.12. Pierced the trend line I mentioned 3 straight days and rejected every time, especially yesterday. 1.12 now back acting as resistance. Purple area is a big support zone. Zoomed out on second chart to show that it has been an important zone recently and going further back.
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COIN Looking like a retest of a broken trend line, which is also right into the daily track line. I moved half my COIN to cash in the 270s. I am going to do the same with half of my remaining here.
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