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The Grill Sergeant

@grillsergeant

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The Grill Sergeant
@grillsergeant
Total 3 This looks like a promising potential breakout here, but also chopping below resistance. A retest of the breakout trend line could still be in order. Regardless, I am not in a rush to sell any alts that I have been holding.
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The Grill Sergeant
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**BTC** Been trading sideways to drifting slightly up for a week now. It is still under the resistance, so I am not doing anything right now. I already sold a chunk on Friday and am just waiting to see what happens next. It also hasn't fully hit the .618 Fib level yet.
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The Grill Sergeant
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Greeting from Clearwater Beach! https://x.com/OGTripleMedia/status/1913104424068927671 Let me know if you are interested in being the CryptoDads nominee for this. The person selected gets their NFT airdropped to them.
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The Grill Sergeant
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ETH Although I think a pull back is likely, I am hesitant to sell any alts here. They are all so beaten down and starting to show signs of life. ETH is right at a major trend line, so it probably gets knocked back some, but when you look at the zoomed out weekly chart you can see how well the .786 Fib has held so far going from bear market low to cycle top. I'd rather hold alts and add more if they do decide to dump harder than they already have. ETH is one of the things I bought when there was mega fear everywhere. I bought in the 1400s on 4/7 when we dipped to the top of the 2018 bull run. Either this holds as the bottom - GREAT! or It doesn't and we look to buy more at around $1000 - I can live with that too. 3rd scenario which is unlikely - ETH continues down to zero and Blackrock, Fidelity, the Trumps and all other ETH holders are cooked.
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The Grill Sergeant
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BTC Dominance Weekly and Daily I found a great channel on this chart. Currently showing no chill on its grind up. Looking at the daily, I made a circle where the .786 Fib meets the top of the channel. That may not be THE top, but it would probably signify a local top that leads to an alt coin rally. If QE starts and this channel breaks down, I will feel pretty good that we are entering a full blown alt season. You could see how all of this is starting to line up. A spike in yields, a dip in markets send BTC Dominance higher, fed pivots to "save the day", we get a higher low on BTC and markets surge. If we get this dream scenario, be prepared to sell and then sell some more. A crash on the other side of it is too real a possibility to get greedy and hold positions for too long.
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The Grill Sergeant
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If you want some great analysis on what is happening and different possibilities of how things could play out, I high recommend this video that I am watching now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJTDbOOTSio
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The Grill Sergeant
@grillsergeant
If you want some great analysis on what is happening and different possibilities of how things could play out, I high recommend this video that I am watching now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJTDbOOTSio
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The Grill Sergeant
@grillsergeant
10 year yield There was a clear breakout and confirmation of this trend line. This is also creating a bull flag as it retests the trend line. Probabilities are that this is winding up for another big move up. If this rate spikes up, it could mean bad things for other markets. A significant spike here could be caused by trade tensions heating back up. (The recent jump up in this rate was caused by other countries dumping our debt.) Looking further out, if things got really ugly here it could trigger the fed to start QE to buy our own debt.
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The Grill Sergeant
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BTC Saw this channel this week on the game plan. It doesn't perfect match the line I was following from the previous cycle tops, but it is probably better. Looking at the first chart, you can see it comes from previous cycle tops, which gave us the tops of this cycle so far. The lower parallel has acted as support and resistance through all cycles as well. Zoomed in on the second chart, you can see how close price is getting to the bottom of the channel (around 96K). If you take a Fib from the all time high to the recent low, you can see the .618 (the most powerful Fib level) is aligning with the 96K level. I am strongly considering taking more off the table today if this gets there. I would consider buying back if we chop sideways for more days to create a bull flag. The recent bull flag before this move was 10 days of chop. I am removing emotion here and remembering how quickly things can and have gone to shit.
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The Grill Sergeant
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Also, I think if the bull market is going to continue, this would be a spot where a pull back makes a lot of sense which would lead to a higher low I talked about yesterday. There is still the scarier possibility that the bull market it over. If so, this would be the area where a lower high before rolling over would make sense.
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GM! Just saw this. Krown is one of the best traders I follow. This is pretty much exactly what I described yesterday. That still doesn't mean it is going to happen. https://x.com/KrownCryptoCave/status/1915323496487415820?s=19
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The Grill Sergeant
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GM! Just saw this. Krown is one of the best traders I follow. This is pretty much exactly what I described yesterday. That still doesn't mean it is going to happen. https://x.com/KrownCryptoCave/status/1915323496487415820?s=19
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The Grill Sergeant
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BTC 4 hour It feels like it would be too good to be true if that was the pull back (note the bounce right at support after being rejected right at resistance). 4 hour RSI is still overbought and momentum is to the downside. Again, this is all info that only matters for short-term trading.
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The Grill Sergeant
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BTC Short-term prediction - Local top here. Retrace to 81,500 - 82,000. Holds as support, strong bounce. We have already moved back into greed. Price has retraced into the blue trend line, which comes from the previous cycle tops and acted as support/resistance during this cycle. My retrace level is based on where longs have built up, which aligns with support and the .618 Fib level. (Fib level only accurate if local top is in.) I believe the support will hold down there with a strong bounce because of the other medium to long term bullish signs I have been talking about the past few days. **How I am playing it** - I am not trying to get too cute with this and I wouldn't recommend anyone else do with any long-term holdings either. I am selling some of my crypto here and setting buy orders lower. If BTC goes up a little higher today, I may even take a short position (which I would aggressively take profits on with any move down)
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The Grill Sergeant
@grillsergeant
BTC Short-term prediction - Local top here. Retrace to 81,500 - 82,000. Holds as support, strong bounce. We have already moved back into greed. Price has retraced into the blue trend line, which comes from the previous cycle tops and acted as support/resistance during this cycle. My retrace level is based on where longs have built up, which aligns with support and the .618 Fib level. (Fib level only accurate if local top is in.) I believe the support will hold down there with a strong bounce because of the other medium to long term bullish signs I have been talking about the past few days. **How I am playing it** - I am not trying to get too cute with this and I wouldn't recommend anyone else do with any long-term holdings either. I am selling some of my crypto here and setting buy orders lower. If BTC goes up a little higher today, I may even take a short position (which I would aggressively take profits on with any move down)
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Just sold the COIN I bought on last list about it. $700 profit. With rallies routinely failing, I'd rather take a W while it is there.
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A major cause for concern about potential further downside USDT Dominance Weekly The weekly close yesterday was a significant break of trend that leaves 2 possibilities. 1) the breakout confirms this week. This would mean that it likely gets worse and that a recovery takes several months at minimum. 2) This weeks candle stays how it is now or dips lower, which would give the impression of a false breakout/reversal. That would mean we likely rally for a bit.
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The Grill Sergeant
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NAK update Followed the lower path. Tapped the top of the support zone and had a strong bounce. You want to see a continued bounce from here. If it chops sideways or slowly up here, it will increase the odds of a breakdown
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The Grill Sergeant
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NAK update Followed the lower path. Tapped the top of the support zone and had a strong bounce. You want to see a continued bounce from here. If it chops sideways or slowly up here, it will increase the odds of a breakdown
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The Grill Sergeant
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And holy shit everything flipped green since I started messaging here 💀
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