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The Grill Sergeant

@grillsergeant

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The Grill Sergeant pfp
The Grill Sergeant
@grillsergeant
NAK update Followed the lower path. Tapped the top of the support zone and had a strong bounce. You want to see a continued bounce from here. If it chops sideways or slowly up here, it will increase the odds of a breakdown
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The Grill Sergeant
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And holy shit everything flipped green since I started messaging here 💀
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The Grill Sergeant
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ETH Touched the 2018 bull market highs earlier.
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The Grill Sergeant
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BTC $74K was front ran at around 74,500 and has already bounced nearly 4K. If nothing else, markets are due for a bear market rally soon. A rally may not mean all time highs again, but still opportunities to profit.
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The Grill Sergeant
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S&P 500 I am short on time this morning, but want to share this. S&P 500 nearly touched the 2022 high today, which is just above a MAJOR trend line. I am DCAing more of sidelined cash today. It could get worse, so I am only doing like 20-25% of cash today spread across some stocks and crypto majors.
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The Grill Sergeant
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COIN This previous post is aging well. COIN has hit a full .618 retrace of bear market low to cycle high. Big support level here. Plus BTC showing strength during this crash. Time to start buying g COIN back imo.
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The Grill Sergeant
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Something that makes me feel good about holding BTC. S&P just tapped the August panic low. The August low for BTC was under 50K. It is currently holding strong at 83K.
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The Grill Sergeant
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BTD Dominance <:hidethepain:1036325838146252830> On 3/27, said this is favoring an upward move. We have been seeing it. The end of pain for alts is not in sight soon if this flips purple zone to support imo.
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The Grill Sergeant
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BTC The big tarrif news is upon us, so far it looks like a fake break of trend line and retest of bear flag break down. Doesn't look great unless we can get a close above.
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The Grill Sergeant
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Raoul Pal chart One of the best arguments that a BTC bull run will continue. What this chart shows is the M2 money supply (black) vs. BTC price. The M2 money supply has a 10 week lead time. As you can see, the price of BTC follows the money supply VERY closely on a 10 week delay. The money supply has been on a run up the last 10 weeks. There is still a possibility that something breaks economically, sending prices lower. This would also likely mark M2 popping off to 'fix' whatever breaks. Think Covid.
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The Grill Sergeant
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BTC Downward trend held as resistance. Now the question is: Does the 76,600 low get taken out? If so, I talked about lower targets in the other posts. If a higher low is created, then look for another push to the trend line.
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The Grill Sergeant
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USDT Dominance Weekly - A more hopeful chart. Last week confirmed a weekly top candle, which is also appearing to form another major pivot point lower high. The previous pivot highs were in September 2023 (right beofre the start of the bull run) and Aug/Sept 2024 (right before the move above 100K)
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BTC Dominance This has been in a bullish consolidation at resistance for weeks. A big move could be building up here.
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The Grill Sergeant
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BTC Nothing changed from previous post. This is a bearish flag pattern going right into resistance. Probabilities favor rejection soon. Confirmation above that trend line will be the first step toward getting back to a bull run. Looking at the weekly chart. The 74Kish level for a retrace feels a little too obvious at this point, so I want to consider some other possibilities. A) The low is already in and 74K level was front run leaving many orders unfilled in that area. In this case, a pull back to just under 80K creating a higher low than the March low is very possible before breaking through the downward trend. If the March low is lost, then one of the possibilities below becomes much more probable. B) The 74K level gets blasted through on a quick move below 70K. C) Choppy down trend continues. I could see the top of the pink zone getting retested or the yellow trend line which started in December 2022 getting tapped. These two intersect at around $61,500.
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NAK No confirmation of close above 1.12. Pierced the trend line I mentioned 3 straight days and rejected every time, especially yesterday. 1.12 now back acting as resistance. Purple area is a big support zone. Zoomed out on second chart to show that it has been an important zone recently and going further back.
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COIN Looking like a retest of a broken trend line, which is also right into the daily track line. I moved half my COIN to cash in the 270s. I am going to do the same with half of my remaining here.
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The Grill Sergeant
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BTC Good news: Green dot above track line on the daily. Bad news: About to hit a trend line resistance. Beyond that, the pink trend like will be major resistance. I would actually look to short BTC at the pink line and would even consider a small day trade short at the yellow trend line.
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I'm back from living off the grid in a camper for the kids spring break! S&P 500 Relief rally across market over the past few days. I don't trust it at this point. The rally is hitting resistance now (currently at daily track line, .382 Fib retracement and January low), so rejection is probable. A good reason to be looking to have some cash ready. Beyond this level, the $586 area (SPY) will be another big challenge. So far, this correction from top to bottom has been about 10.5%, but it seems that the trend has changed downward for at least the medium-term.
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NAK Up 65% in the last two trading days is a huge W. Based on the technicals, this is a good place to take profits to see what happens next. My first chart is the weekly. Taking a trend line from the previous two tops shows price is right into this level. $1.20 zone has been a big area of resistance before, which has been broken at this point. Daily and Weekly RSI are both getting well into the overbought zone. Taking profits here will allow you some flexibility on the trade. Here are a few of the most likely scenarios: 1) Pulls back here. You respected resistance until proven otherwise and now have cash available to buy back on support. 2) Price continues up and confirms above in the next day or two. This would be a sign that a more significant breakout is occurring. The two times there has been a confirmation above $1.22, it has led to big moves up. You wait patiently with your cash for a retest of the breakout to re-enter.
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ETH/BTC Weekly & ETH Daily and Weekly The descent into Hades continues. This supports the previous idea that BTC Dominance looks ready to continue upward. ETH - Closed and confirmed below the long term trend line. The bad news: more pain for ETH holders looks likely. The good news: nothing goes down forever unless it is going to zero. I added back the lower lines on ETH for different S/R levels. I also ran a Fib from the bottom of the bear to this cycles top. The 0.786 lined up almost perfectly with one of my support lines at 1560-1570. I would look to long ETH here for a swing trade. If that level also breaks down, then I will gladly buy ETH at the lower levels and forget about it for years.
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