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The Grill Sergeant

@grillsergeant

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The Grill Sergeant
@grillsergeant
ETH/BTC Weekly & ETH Daily and Weekly The descent into Hades continues. This supports the previous idea that BTC Dominance looks ready to continue upward. ETH - Closed and confirmed below the long term trend line. The bad news: more pain for ETH holders looks likely. The good news: nothing goes down forever unless it is going to zero. I added back the lower lines on ETH for different S/R levels. I also ran a Fib from the bottom of the bear to this cycles top. The 0.786 lined up almost perfectly with one of my support lines at 1560-1570. I would look to long ETH here for a swing trade. If that level also breaks down, then I will gladly buy ETH at the lower levels and forget about it for years.
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The Grill Sergeant
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BTC Dominance Tuesday was the highest daily close of this multiple year move up. It has gotten knocked down a bit into the resistance zone, but the track line is green and turning up. Chances are this is going higher first. Learning from the past, we should assume a bullish BTC dominance means more pain for alts.
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I know most of you are less about short-term trading, so I want to focus on some higher time frame BTC possibilities that I am looking at and how I am playing the coming months. First a look at the monthly chart, which is a major cause for concern. R/T/R combo that was right at the top of the channel. If March closes at $78K or below, then the reversal confirms. This would likely take many months to play out. Second is the weekly chart. Stoch RSI is completely bottomed out, so a bounce coming off this big correction is a strong possibility. Liquidations also support that a move up to wreck some shorts could be in order. Whether the move up is a reversal that continues the bull or a failed bounce is the question. Something else noteworthy/scary on this chart, there is negative divergence in the RSI. Way I am playing it: If we bounce first, I will move more into cash between 90-95K to protect myself against a rejection there followed by further downside.
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The Grill Sergeant
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ecently, so the good entries for that have passed. <@&1035719141048459317> If we go into a full blown bear market/recession, think about what you wish you'd have done throughout the bear market. For me, the answer to that would be to accumulate quality over time...the stocks and crypto that are way down, but that are strong comeback candidates. You could really start that now with both stocks and crypto being at extreme fear. If new lows get hit later with more extreme fear, add more.
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The Grill Sergeant
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VIRTUAL On Jan 28, I noted the head and shoulders confirmed break down. One month ago it was if $1.30 doesn't hold then we are probably getting 0.60 - 0.35 VIRTUAL again. Unfortunately, these scenarios have played out and have taken down everything in the Virtuals and AI Agent ecosystem. MXNBC was no exception. Despite this, <@1135976262234542233> and <@848463597910491167> continue to work on and advance the capabilities of our friend, Rekt.
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The Grill Sergeant
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TSLA This is another wild chart. Down 54% since December high. This is freaking Tesla, not an altcoin or NFT collection. This is about to fill the October gap which could act as a strong bounce area. If the bounce fails, there are several lines converging around $170 that would be a huge support area to play for a bounce.
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The Grill Sergeant
@grillsergeant
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USDT Dominance Making new highs. A close us here would completely negate the previous Top candles that confirmed.
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The Grill Sergeant
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ETH This is potentially confirming below a long trend line today. I erased my lines lower than this on ETH <:cringe_gavin:899763131176341554> But if this does confirm today, it would make sense if we got opportunities to get ETH between $1500 and $1700 again. My March options are on life support at best. Sorry <@399011031923294208>
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The Grill Sergeant
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BTC Still waiting for the retest of the yellow line. Conviction remains high that this is the level for BTC and crypto that will lead to solid entries.
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The Grill Sergeant
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MSTR Fell back into the channel, did a perfect retest of the top of the channel and has been rejected back down. The middle of the chanel is some support, but has already been hit before. I like an entry at the bottom of this channel. $190 - $200.
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COIN This is at a pretty big support level currently. You have .786 fib level aligned with a S/R level. This is the level I was looking at before as a favorable bounce level. I would stay disciplined right now. If you open a trade, be ready to take profits quickly, as we could see dead cat bounces.
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The Grill Sergeant
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Starting w/ S&P 500, because crypto probably not going to have a good time in a scenario where the stock market continues to sell off. Friday's reversal candle is currently failing and price is below a pretty big S/R level. Watching to see if this closes below and has a continuation candle that confirm the level is lost. If so, then I see $540 - $545 in the future. Alternatively, if there is no confirmation below, then this could be a bear trap that leads to a reversal. We are in a time where you have to respect resistance even more than usual, so if there is a reversal, look at it as an opportunity to sell or short at resistance. For the S&P, the $585-590 will be a big resistance area if this reverses, especially if the daily track line has moved down to that range.
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The Grill Sergeant
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The "disappointment" from the executive order is that they will just be holding and stockpiling seized assets vs. buying more. I don't see this as a big surprise, so I don't get why the market is reacting so strongly about it.
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A 3.5% drop in a 15 minute candle is insane for BTC. I would've expected way more in the way of liquidations than this. The fact that this wasn't a liquidation event is concerning.
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Someone just nuked BTC in the last 15 minutes. Makes me wonder if this might actually be a positive heading into the big crypto summit tomorrow. I'm going to look at liquidstions now.
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It was close, but ETH confirmed the daily reversal. My March 21 options have been given some new hope.
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A few important candles just closed USDT Dominance confirmed the top candle. It could just lead to another short-lived quick pump. I'd line to see a close below the track line with a continuation move downward to feel like it is more than that.
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Some macro hopium for those in need. DXY - Has continued to break down from head and shoulders. However, this will likely see a bounce soon as it is nearing support and the completion of the measured move from the head and shoulders. I could see this getting down under 104 and then bounce up to track line. From there we would like to see it rejected. Unfortunately, stocks and crypto have moved down with the dollar. It's kinda like when ETH goes down and your NFTs go down in terms of ETH at the same time. M2 Money supply - This has been trending upward for the last year. Historically M2 going up has correlated to BTC going up, but there is often a lag.
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ETH Would also be pretty sweet if ETH confirmed this reversal and closes back above the major yellow trend line. Hopium would breathe deep into my lungs.
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