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The Grill Sergeant

@grillsergeant

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ETH Although I think a pull back is likely, I am hesitant to sell any alts here. They are all so beaten down and starting to show signs of life. ETH is right at a major trend line, so it probably gets knocked back some, but when you look at the zoomed out weekly chart you can see how well the .786 Fib has held so far going from bear market low to cycle top. I'd rather hold alts and add more if they do decide to dump harder than they already have. ETH is one of the things I bought when there was mega fear everywhere. I bought in the 1400s on 4/7 when we dipped to the top of the 2018 bull run. Either this holds as the bottom - GREAT! or It doesn't and we look to buy more at around $1000 - I can live with that too. 3rd scenario which is unlikely - ETH continues down to zero and Blackrock, Fidelity, the Trumps and all other ETH holders are cooked.
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BTC Saw this channel this week on the game plan. It doesn't perfect match the line I was following from the previous cycle tops, but it is probably better. Looking at the first chart, you can see it comes from previous cycle tops, which gave us the tops of this cycle so far. The lower parallel has acted as support and resistance through all cycles as well. Zoomed in on the second chart, you can see how close price is getting to the bottom of the channel (around 96K). If you take a Fib from the all time high to the recent low, you can see the .618 (the most powerful Fib level) is aligning with the 96K level. I am strongly considering taking more off the table today if this gets there. I would consider buying back if we chop sideways for more days to create a bull flag. The recent bull flag before this move was 10 days of chop. I am removing emotion here and remembering how quickly things can and have gone to shit.
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BTC Short-term prediction - Local top here. Retrace to 81,500 - 82,000. Holds as support, strong bounce. We have already moved back into greed. Price has retraced into the blue trend line, which comes from the previous cycle tops and acted as support/resistance during this cycle. My retrace level is based on where longs have built up, which aligns with support and the .618 Fib level. (Fib level only accurate if local top is in.) I believe the support will hold down there with a strong bounce because of the other medium to long term bullish signs I have been talking about the past few days. **How I am playing it** - I am not trying to get too cute with this and I wouldn't recommend anyone else do with any long-term holdings either. I am selling some of my crypto here and setting buy orders lower. If BTC goes up a little higher today, I may even take a short position (which I would aggressively take profits on with any move down)
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