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The Grill Sergeant

@grillsergeant

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The Grill Sergeant
@grillsergeant
It was close, but ETH confirmed the daily reversal. My March 21 options have been given some new hope.
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The Grill Sergeant
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A few important candles just closed USDT Dominance confirmed the top candle. It could just lead to another short-lived quick pump. I'd line to see a close below the track line with a continuation move downward to feel like it is more than that.
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The Grill Sergeant
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Some macro hopium for those in need. DXY - Has continued to break down from head and shoulders. However, this will likely see a bounce soon as it is nearing support and the completion of the measured move from the head and shoulders. I could see this getting down under 104 and then bounce up to track line. From there we would like to see it rejected. Unfortunately, stocks and crypto have moved down with the dollar. It's kinda like when ETH goes down and your NFTs go down in terms of ETH at the same time. M2 Money supply - This has been trending upward for the last year. Historically M2 going up has correlated to BTC going up, but there is often a lag.
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The Grill Sergeant
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ETH Would also be pretty sweet if ETH confirmed this reversal and closes back above the major yellow trend line. Hopium would breathe deep into my lungs.
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The Grill Sergeant
@grillsergeant
USDT Dominance Top candle just closed. Can we get a top confirmation again? The last one of these came days before the strategic reserve announcement. There is a Digital Assets Summit at the White House this Friday. Could be another buy the rumor pump coming, which might present an opportunity to move some back to cash at resistance.
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The Grill Sergeant
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S&P 500 Big sell off into the close, confirmed the breakdown. Favors more downside with bounces along the way for stocks.
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The Grill Sergeant
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For March gains, we need to hope this confirmed daily T/R on USDT dominance plays out.
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Maybe today is just punishing the late longs? This week is going to be interesting to follow.
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Obviously a full reversal of yesterday's gains is no bueno. We often get quick moves down on the way up to clear out liquidity. This feels like it may have been a quick move up as we continue down. I am still a big buyer at 74K zone on BTC>
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The Grill Sergeant
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SOL I put arrows on the major trend line that goes back to March 2024. This is the level that you want to see confirmation above to feel like that dip below was just a bear trap. The move below did confirm, so we have to assume that today's reversal is that level holding as a major resistance until proven otherwise. Chart after chart showing the same general idea...major levels were hit yesterday and are getting rejected today.
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The Grill Sergeant
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ETH As ugly as it has been, ETH held above the key trend line. Daily reversal failing today. For my spot bags, I am not worried regardless as it likely that ETH will some day make ATH again. For my options buy during that early Feb wick down, I am happy to see this level hold because options expire March 21. So I need to see ETH break out of this downward trend by then or those options are cooked. ETH/BTC, chart 2, looked like it had made a major low that day. So far that is still the low, but it is concerning that this was clearly rejected at the bottom of the channel that it had broken down from.
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The Grill Sergeant
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USDT Dominance T/R confirmed in a major way yesterday, down nearly 10%. So is today's rebound just needed after such a huge move in one day before this continues downward? Can't call it at this point.
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The Grill Sergeant
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BTC Dominance This has remained under the major resistance zone. Potentially putting in a reversal candle today. T/R confirmed last week, which was a bullish sign for the markets, which played out yesterday. Need to see this reversal up fail to continue to feel bullish in the near term.
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The Grill Sergeant
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Total 3 Similar to BTC, pumped up through a key trend line which confirmed a reversal on the daily, but has gotten rejected down today. The question is, "was this a bull trap resulting in a lower high OR is today's pull back just a needed cool off after such a big move up in one day?" More data is needed to get a better feel for the answer.
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Late GM What a couple of days it has been. To me, I think it is obvious that all of this is being orchestrated. It can't be coincidence that markets got crushed heading into options closed on "scary" news of tariffs and inflation only to get pumped on huge news on a Sunday when markets are closed. BTC Tough to get a great read on the short-term of what is next. Big jump yesterday back into the previous range, which is getting rejected down below today. For now, you have to look at it as resistance holding until proven otherwise. On a positive, it was a big confirmation of the previous day's reversal candle. Longer term, I remain confident that this is a correction within a bull market than the beginning of the end. The weekly close (2nd chart) ended up being well within the range that has existed for months.
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The Grill Sergeant
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Undefeated indicator
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Options expiration may be as bug a reason for the price action as anything $5,780,000,000 worth of Bitcoin & Ethereum options expire today. BTC made it as low at $78K last night. That may have been the front run of $74K. I'm waiting patiently to see how the day plays out
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The Grill Sergeant
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Zoomed out ETH chart to show where the trend line comes frok
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ETH This trend line goes back to June 2022 lol Dipping below could be a bear trap. Confirming below and be ready to buy some really cheap ETH.
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The Grill Sergeant
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MSTR weekly I am seeing a lot of support in the area just under $200. This continuation down would make sense if BTC continues down to the mid 70s. I will be looking to open a trade here if/when we get there.
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