phil
@phil
There is a prediction market with $2M in volume for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Peter Thiel is trading at 7 cents on the dollar, despite being born in Germany and therefore ineligible for the role. Can someone explain to me why this isn’t free money? https://i.imgur.com/0pVIqdA.jpg
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forager
@forager
You’ll have to lock up funds until the official “decision” date which is at least 12 months. Risk free rate is maybe 4% now and then assume you could do better buying deeply depressed stocks or crypto plus tail risk Republicans decide to fight the constitution. It’s probably mediocre deal at best?
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phil
@phil
Opportunity cost rules everything around me
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