Prediction markets resolve to 100% accuracy 100% of the time. They are a perfect truth machine in this regard

Provided that the outcome is accurately defined. 

Defining the markets is pretty nuanced and easy to get wrong. 

Polymarket have had a couple get lost in technicalities.

Polymarket

Policy Communications at Consensys; Ex-Circle Strategy, Crypto Startup Advisor

not sure if it's entirely on UMA here.

just take a look at the market description:

'This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."'

they definitely need to be more precise with what 'wins' means in this context, especially because it was to be expected that we will end up in this kind of situation.

only if you precisely know what you are resolving, do you know what source can be used for the resolution.

because if polymarket starts to rely on the proclamations of rigged officials, what's its true value-add?

does it then have the right to call itself 'the truth machine'?

agree!

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I mean, it is only a problem in a rather small subset of markets.

and I would argue that you as a participant should always be aware of the risks associated with the resolution.

but I get your point. I also stay away from markets where I have the feeling that they aren't well defined.

Biggest reason why I stay away from it. 

Heard about so much drama and bs because the rules are not clearly defined, I dont wanna bother with that stuff tbh.