potentially wild take but

us recession would be good for crypto prices

crypto's main product today is giving retail investors hopes and dreams of becoming wealthy

poor people -> more demand to make money on the internet -> more crypto volume -> more paper wealth -> higher crypto prices

and lower rates

will delete if i'm wrong

Now with the Bitcoin ETF, I feel that Bitcoin (=~cypto as a whole) was somewhat integrated into the stock trading ecosystem and is therefore less likely to act differently with stocks. So when the recession happens, until the rates are cut, crypto may have a hard time rising.

After all, it's Bitcoin ETF that has a significant impact on the price.