Fred Ehrsam pfp

Fred Ehrsam

@fehrsam

60 Following
2051 Followers
Dan Romero pfp
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
New thing from @fehrsam https://x.com/FEhrsam/status/1820859394361610338
15 replies
0 recast
51 reactions
Fred Ehrsam pfp
Fred Ehrsam
@fehrsam
Fiat as a product is horrible for 2.6bn people. Crypto and stables can fix this.
64 replies
249 recasts
1844 reactions
Fred Ehrsam pfp
Fred Ehrsam
@fehrsam
TL;DR: Stablecoins are already a big deal and are on track to be one of the most important parts of the global financial system. Thanks to all the submitters for the mental cycles and hard work!
2 replies
0 recast
11 reactions
Fred Ehrsam pfp
Fred Ehrsam
@fehrsam
To caveat the findings, they are very sensitive to a few key variables: - The growth of stablecoins - Changes in foreign entity holdings (Japan and China are cutting rn) - How buckets of holders are defined - Potential diversification of stablecoin holdings into other assets
1 reply
0 recast
4 reactions
Fred Ehrsam pfp
Fred Ehrsam
@fehrsam
- I hadn't realized (or willfully forgot) how large the Federal Reserve's holdings of US debt is. They are the largest holder of US debt, roughly $6 trillion of the $31 trillion, almost all accumulated in the last 15 years.
2 replies
0 recast
6 reactions
Fred Ehrsam pfp
Fred Ehrsam
@fehrsam
A good full breakout of US debt holders can be seen here: https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2023/05/the-federal-government-has-borrowed-trillions-but-who-owns-all-that-debt
1 reply
0 recast
5 reactions
Fred Ehrsam pfp
Fred Ehrsam
@fehrsam
- Fidelity is the largest MMF holding US Treasuries at $1.3T and growing, followed by JPM ($700b) and Vanguard ($600b). The largest sovereign holders are China ($1.1T) and Japan ($1T), both shrinking.
1 reply
0 recast
4 reactions
Fred Ehrsam pfp
Fred Ehrsam
@fehrsam
A few other interesting learnings: - Money market funds are up there with the largest sovereigns as holders of US debt (h/t @niccarter who has done amazing work on stablecoins).
1 reply
0 recast
4 reactions
Fred Ehrsam pfp
Fred Ehrsam
@fehrsam
For detailed scenario analysis, check out this sheet from @jeremybatchelder https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15sxp6czHBSuJzfP3jcgp89pMo2VmzSr3ypXXkjGCxs8/edit#gid=2110422470 or Part 1 Section 3 of this analysis from @lxn: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1UFYVzkU1UaF1pwBxS23WcDjldT0OILOs
1 reply
0 recast
3 reactions
Fred Ehrsam pfp
Fred Ehrsam
@fehrsam
Zooming out further, on their current trajectory, this analysis of stablecoins solidified 2 things for me: 1) Stablecoins will be one of the largest sinks for US debt over the next 10 years 2) Stablecoins will become "systemically important" to the US and global financial systems
1 reply
0 recast
6 reactions
Fred Ehrsam pfp
Fred Ehrsam
@fehrsam
The analysis revealed: - Stablecoins are on track to be in the 10 largest holders of US debt within 10 years - A simple extrapolation of the last 3 years would make stablecoins the largest holders of US debt in the world
1 reply
0 recast
4 reactions
Fred Ehrsam pfp
Fred Ehrsam
@fehrsam
Now on to the question: Will crypto stablecoins become the largest holders of US debt?
1 reply
0 recast
2 reactions
Fred Ehrsam pfp
Fred Ehrsam
@fehrsam
It turns out $1k brings quality answers to make it worthwhile, especially for questions that are open ended logically and in supporting data. It did require work: reading submissions and stitching them together. But I'd try it again for an open-ended question that ChatGPT (at least currently) would struggle with.
1 reply
0 recast
6 reactions
Fred Ehrsam pfp
Fred Ehrsam
@fehrsam
Honorable mention: @paulx https://warpcast.com/paulx/0x0645138f
1 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
Fred Ehrsam pfp
Fred Ehrsam
@fehrsam
The winners: 1) @jeremybatchelder https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15sxp6czHBSuJzfP3jcgp89pMo2VmzSr3ypXXkjGCxs8/edit#gid=809946059 2) @lxn https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1UFYVzkU1UaF1pwBxS23WcDjldT0OILOs 3) @michaellwy https://docs.google.com/document/d/1xdnsVk-Q0h2Vrc_Ggaisqozr9vB1yMB8/edit
1 reply
2 recasts
8 reactions
Fred Ehrsam pfp
Fred Ehrsam
@fehrsam
First, the bounty winners. I originally posted for a single $1k winner but after seeing the submissions decided to give 3 $1k winner bounties and 1 $250 honorable mention.
1 reply
0 recast
7 reactions
Fred Ehrsam pfp
Fred Ehrsam
@fehrsam
The question: Will stablecoins become the largest holders of US debt?
1 reply
0 recast
3 reactions
Fred Ehrsam pfp
Fred Ehrsam
@fehrsam
2 weeks ago I tried an experiment in bounty based research. Could a $1k @bountycaster bounty successfully solve a research question? TL;DR: Bounty-based research worked pretty well!
4 replies
23 recasts
144 reactions
Fred Ehrsam pfp
Fred Ehrsam
@fehrsam
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8E1M8f3PYQ8
0 reply
2 recasts
18 reactions
Fred Ehrsam pfp
Fred Ehrsam
@fehrsam
I agree with this nuance. One motivator was that US policymakers will care about a large sink for US Treasuries and it's a legible singular narrative. There's also a world where stablecoin issuers become "systemically important" beyond just US Treasury holdings, which I think is where we're headed.
0 reply
0 recast
3 reactions