Zeihan bad takes recently:

- "This is the last iPhone (for 4-5 years)"
- "Tesla is going down another 90%"

On the Tesla point, may be true, but his consistent weak spot is he dismisses Silicon Valley-driven technology breakthroughs. And even in his physical world analysis of defense, underrates SpaceX and Anduril.

zeihan — like any other analyst — must be evaluated only by the track record of his successful or wrong predictions

no more, no less

what % of his previous predictions were right?

"Imaginable" and "Superforecasting" are two of the best books on this topic