A common hopium is "crypto is up only"

Reality: 99.9999...% crypto assets are down only. They hit an ATH in some mania, that ATH will never be hit again, and they will be down only forever

BTC, ETH, handful others are massive exceptions that have carved out a secular bull, but even they will see a secular bear eventually, like all emerging markets have through the centuries

A related ubiquitous mistake:

Look at "metrics" in the middle of a speculative mania, assume "it's only the beginning" and extrapolate to the future with eyewatering "metrics" to "rationalise" said up only hopium

Reality: said "metrics" are completely unsustainable and have nothing to do with token prices anyway

Careful not to fall for hype and unrealistic projections based on temporary trends