politics

Predictions for the next 4 yrs 🇺🇸

⚔️ Continued rise of protectionism & nationalism (trending w/ rest of the world).

🤷‍♀️ Deregulation on domestic tech & business.

🫵 Rise of states rights on social issues.

🌱 Growth of independent parties + advocates, starting with local (ex: GrowSF, Forward Party).

🌶️🤔 Trump will surprise ppl with Supreme Court appointees. 

🕰️🤞 Rebirth of Democratic party with young, bold voices from outside establishment + pulse on practical issues.

Y1Q1 check-in 👇

⚔️ Continued rise of protectionism & nationalism 

>> ✅ Definitely

Tariffs galore, US future in NATO uncertain, EU emphasizing self-sufficiency as response. Fastest  growth rate in global military spend in a decade+.

Cofounder & CTO @rodeodotclub @foundation.

https://rodeo.club/@elpizo

🫵 Rise of states rights on social issues

>> ❌ Not really 

Trump is unilaterally waging war on DEI, abortion, trans rights, immigration. Progressive states/cities are forced or pressured to comply.

🌱 Growth of independent parties

🌶️🤔 Surprising Supreme Court appointees

>> 👀 Too early to tell for both

🕰️🤞Rebirth of Democratic party 

>> 👀 too early to tell but signs are emerging

Supply-side progressives getting louder (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson on Abundance Agenda doing rounds)

AOC + Bernie repping left wing CPC in rallies

Adventurous moderates like Gavin Newsom testing water on conservative podcasts

Midterms some ways away but gonna be fascinating to watch 🍿

🤷‍♀️ Deregulation on domestic tech & business

>> ✅ (mostly*) 

10-1 initiative in month 1, AI safety testing rules rolled back, environmental restrictions cut/relaxed, much needed clarity on crypto following borderline reckless $TRUMP drop

*This has been balanced by much tighter export controls on high tech exports & expansion of Entity List