Elie on Warpcast

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Elie pfp

"How to Win the Premier League" is a fascinating book. The principles in it predict well why last season Bayer Leverkusen won the league and why this season they're doing badly. In short, they had good luck last season and bad luck this season. The book doesn't cover this case specifically, but the same principles apply in other case studies in the book. Such as Klopp's poor last season at Dortmund. Football has swings. xG a somewhat limited metric. But still fairly good explainer of what's happening. Bayern Munich was the better team last year. Higher xPts, higher xG, lower xGA. But a lot comes down to luck. And over the long run the luck evens out. This year Leverkusen are stuck in 4th, but their xPts show they should be 2nd. Not much changed. Just a luck swing.

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Chukwuka Osakwe

@chukwukaosakwe

i'm not sure why people hate the x stats. sometimes they can be overdone, but more often than not they can really help paint a picture of what's going well (or not going well) and where changes need to occur.

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Ya. I think it’s because most don’t really understand them. Myself included although now I think I get it way more having read this book. But probability is something people struggle with in general. We can’t comprehend uncertainty. Or a 60% chance of something happening. And then it not happening.

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Also learnt that there are many deeper models they use, but the public gets access to the most basic which are xg and xa. In the book he talks about post strike xg, which is a lot more helpful for understanding how hard it is for a keeper to save the shot. xg is a very rough approximation. And the stats guys know this. But it has value none the less. And where you really see the stats guys are right are with teams like Liverpool. They did moneyball. Transfers like Firmino seemed crazy for a while. He was bought for like 30m from Hoffenheim and never scored much. But in the end they assembled an incredibly strong team that won the league and ucl. The quotes laughing at their moneyball approach a few years before proved to be so wrong.

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Also Liverpool had some crazy high scoring seasons with 99 points where they didn’t win the league. The final record is a little unfair as to how good the Liverpool team actually was/is.

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Chukwuka Osakwe

@chukwukaosakwe

97 points. but yeah, that's one of the most insane things i've ever witnessed. klopp's greatness basically got blocked by pep's super team.

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They had a few of those seasons. Also Klopp is great. But it’s also about how great the players are. As can be seen by the new manager doing well with them too. Pep also has a quote how it’s also about the players. And that may be humbleness. But there’s truth to it. He’s often had incredible teams

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Chukwuka Osakwe

@chukwukaosakwe

i think pep in particular, always has the best players or is in a position to get them to come in. klopp had to work with lots of so-so players in his time. jordan henderson, roberto firmino, even wijnaldum to some extent. these guys aren't exactly elite players. but klopp made the team more than the sum of its parts.

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Not sure. Liverpool stats guys knew these players were elite but undervalued. But Klopp did play an important role. Brendan Rogers wouldn't play the Moneyball players and failed at Liverpool. He brought in players the scouts didn't want like Benteke, and who completely flopped at Liverpool. Players like Firmino were great players, just not many people saw it. But they still paid Hoffenheim close to $30m for him.

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Players do need the right environment to thrive in. Would Lewandowski have become who he was with a more negative coach? Maybe not. And then were a tonne of unknowns that went through the Dortmund system under him. But even now he's gone they've continued to produce well. So maybe it's how the club is run rather than the coach.

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