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Elie
@elie
"How to Win the Premier League" is a fascinating book. The principles in it predict well why last season Bayer Leverkusen won the league and why this season they're doing badly. In short, they had good luck last season and bad luck this season. The book doesn't cover this case specifically, but the same principles apply in other case studies in the book. Such as Klopp's poor last season at Dortmund. Football has swings. xG a somewhat limited metric. But still fairly good explainer of what's happening. Bayern Munich was the better team last year. Higher xPts, higher xG, lower xGA. But a lot comes down to luck. And over the long run the luck evens out. This year Leverkusen are stuck in 4th, but their xPts show they should be 2nd. Not much changed. Just a luck swing.
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Chukwuka Osakwe
@chukwukaosakwe
i'm not sure why people hate the x stats. sometimes they can be overdone, but more often than not they can really help paint a picture of what's going well (or not going well) and where changes need to occur.
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Elie
@elie
Ya. I think it’s because most don’t really understand them. Myself included although now I think I get it way more having read this book. But probability is something people struggle with in general. We can’t comprehend uncertainty. Or a 60% chance of something happening. And then it not happening.
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Elie
@elie
Also learnt that there are many deeper models they use, but the public gets access to the most basic which are xg and xa. In the book he talks about post strike xg, which is a lot more helpful for understanding how hard it is for a keeper to save the shot. xg is a very rough approximation. And the stats guys know this. But it has value none the less. And where you really see the stats guys are right are with teams like Liverpool. They did moneyball. Transfers like Firmino seemed crazy for a while. He was bought for like 30m from Hoffenheim and never scored much. But in the end they assembled an incredibly strong team that won the league and ucl. The quotes laughing at their moneyball approach a few years before proved to be so wrong.
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Chukwuka Osakwe
@chukwukaosakwe
interestingly i'm reading the section of thinking fast and slow where daniel kahneman talks about this.
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