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Nick T
@nt
earnest question - if this is an inefficiency, why is nobody arbing?
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Elie
@elie
There’s what Nate (/ his model) believes and what the markets believe. It’s not an arb. If Nate is confident in his model he should be putting money on Kamala right now.
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Elie
@elie
Btw, 2016 election. Nate had Trump at around 29% to win. Markets had him at 18%. Everyone said Nate got that election so wrong. But if he was making bets he would have bet on Trump. (Also people don’t understand percentages. If you say something happens with 29% probability and it happens you’re not wrong 😂 but that’s bedsides the point)
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Elie
@elie
On the topic of arbs, England manager odds for Thomas tuchel were at around 35% on Polymarket while on bet365 it was 65%. I tried to put money on Polymarket but got blocked by location :( Would have won the bet a few days later. But reason for that huge discrepancy was an illiquid market. Not the case for the election market.
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