Solana

How high is the probability that Jump Crypto will launch its own L1 once firedancer has been tested in prod on Sol mainnet? Especially in the scenario that it will take way longer until the whole network switches from labs client to FD

Less likely than someone else doing it imo.

Jump's incentives make it complicated for them to drive the launch of a new L1 directly - it's more favorable for them to invest in another team taking this approach

Good point! And this funding would definitely be enough to attract a good team giving it a shot