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balajis
@balajis.eth
The greatest strength comes from knowing your own weakness. My overarching thesis is that history is running in reverse. So the countries that had a great 20th century are on track for a tough 21st, and vice versa. For example: China, Russia, India, Eastern Europe were crushed by socialism. Now they are capitalist and unified to varying degrees. So their overall trajectory is up. Meanwhile, Woke America and Western Europe were once capitalist and unified. But now they’re woke with broken borders and bankrupt states. So their overall trajectory is down. Like Dalio and Elon, I believe the coming sovereign debt crisis will end 500 years of Western dominance (and also take down Japan). Failing states will get extremely nasty. I think China rises. I think the Internet succeeds the West, and opposes China. I also think Bitcoin Republicans can maybe turn Florida into a Taiwan equivalent, where capitalists take refuge. But most aren’t ready to hear this. They still think the postwar order will last.
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Ed O'Shaughnessy
@eddieosh
Western Europe will be the first to fall off the "Seneca Cliff". With few natural resources, declining industry & STEM, and having shot itself in the foot by sanctioning Russia, the Energy Costs of Energy (ECoE) will fracture its fragile financial structures. "But energy is different – we become poorer if our society has less of it, or if we have to pay a higher material price for it. The relevant metric here is ECoE, which measures the proportion of energy which, being consumed in the energy access process, isn’t available for any other economic purpose." https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2024/07/22/284-maybe-later/
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Ed O'Shaughnessy
@eddieosh
https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2011/08/seneca-effect-origins-of-collapse.html
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