Mac Budkowski ᵏ pfp
Mac Budkowski ᵏ
@macbudkowski
Everyday I'm getting more convinced that Balaji might have been right. My conviction is still pretty low (ca. 4-5%) but it started from 1%.
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Mac Budkowski ᵏ pfp
Mac Budkowski ᵏ
@macbudkowski
"They're the same picture" https://i.imgur.com/kFXiVkV.png
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Dan Romero pfp
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
If they're the same picture, how come the dollar didn't hyperinflate after the first two? :)
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Syed Shah🏴‍☠️🌊 pfp
Syed Shah🏴‍☠️🌊
@syed
Slowly slowly then all of a sudden. It did, just there was no way to measure before BTC. You can always control Gold metrics and CPI. BTC is credibly neutral third party. To bring btc down you have to do things that make system break. Fed flinched at first sign of weakness and BTC was here to call the bluff. Idk my 2¢
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Dan Romero pfp
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
What would happen to BTC if all the US on/off ramps lost access to fiat?
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Syed Shah🏴‍☠️🌊 pfp
Syed Shah🏴‍☠️🌊
@syed
That to me is the single most interesting part of the bet Balaji made. The assumption is that it would collapse. But there is a world where people get more desperate to get on-boarded. Because the US has shown weakness by acknowledging it as a threat. Now it’s not the off-ramp that shrunk but the on-ramp. Btc=a milli
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Dan Romero pfp
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
So if US banking rails were permanently cut tonight, do you think the price of Bitcoin is higher or lower one month later?
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Syed Shah🏴‍☠️🌊 pfp
Syed Shah🏴‍☠️🌊
@syed
Hmm the how is as important as the when. Like how the narrative is presented. But one month after that point? Higher. People have way too much trust in the banking system. These clowns are more degen than in 2008 not less I suspect. Postmortem will prob confirm. It’s depression or hyperinflation. Fed shows hand Wed.
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Dan Romero pfp
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
> depression Tightest labor market in 50 years and we're going to get a depression? > hyperinflation When was the last time a major economy experienced hyperinflation? What were the conditions for it?
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stipe pfp
stipe
@stipe
just added When Money Dies by Adam Fergusson to my reading list. looks like we might be on the same track as Germany back in 1923.
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Dan Romero pfp
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
re: Weimar — when did we lose a major war, have significant industrial territory taken away and have to pay massive reparations denominated in a foreign currency?
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stipe pfp
stipe
@stipe
I haven't read the book so take my comments with a grain of salt. some of the things you mentioned are noise IMO. we need to look for the carrier wave which is most likely inflation. government spending has been off the charts for years (covid, wars, foreign aid, bank bailouts)...
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stipe pfp
stipe
@stipe
working forward from this question might be a good thought exercise: what is the outcome of printing 80% of all USD in existence in only 2 years?
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Dan Romero pfp
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
1. How is that on a relative basis compared to other major economies? 2. Why did Bitcoin correct in spring 2022?
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stipe pfp
stipe
@stipe
1/ USD is the world's reserve currency so you could argue that there is only one economy, the US one 2/ smart money leaving the traditional banking system?
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Dan Romero pfp
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
1. So if all the economies are stuck with the dollar, then seems like hyperinflation is unlikley! 2. Bitcoin correcting means price went down so people exited bitcoin for fiat
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Tayyab - d/acc pfp
Tayyab - d/acc
@tayyab
I believe most of it will come down to whether other countries lose faith in the Dollar. Aka does Dubai, Saudi, Israel, begin to adopt BTC as a hedge against dollar devaluation? Allowing the US to hold reserve currency status gives them too much power to get away with a lot. People won’t stand for it too long.
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stipe pfp
stipe
@stipe
1/ why is it unlikely? doesn't it make it even more likely? like SVB's impact on other regional banks. 2/ yes but it started ramping back up towards the EOY - that's what I was referring to. it's unclear what caused the drop mid year, but it it could have been driven by increasing interest rates / access to capital.
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Syed Shah🏴‍☠️🌊 pfp
Syed Shah🏴‍☠️🌊
@syed
Bitcoin like everything else went up with leverage. When economic conditions tighten, homies take it out of BTC first. When they loosen it’s back to degen gains. If Fed has credibility in fighting inflation BTC doesn’t detach from markets. Should Fed ever lose that credibility, no reason to deleverage from BTC ever
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