politics

any thoughts on why someone would do this? Just spare change lying around and hoping to influence the outcome?

Occams Razor: he thinks he will make money.

Opinion polls are about what people currently think (which candidate they currently support). Prediction markets are about predicting what the outcome will be on election day.

The trend in the polls is downward for Kamala, so prediction markets (and the French trader) are correctly assuming Trump's victory even though Trump is currently behind in the polls.

It's the current point in time vs. the future point in time.

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Yeah it's even now, but Trump got ahead on Polymarket already 3 weeks ago, when he was still heavily behind in the polls