The race to AGI is fascinating because unlike most recent macro technology shifts:

1. Not biased for startups -- Both incumbents and startups are at the frontier; unclear if disruptive or sustaining innovation

2. Top talent heavy -- The top 100 people (top 10?) are differentiated talent; feels like the NBA; other technology shifts are more market tailwind + execution

3. No network effect -- It seems like the core technology (foundational models) are not platforms / network effects (and are being rapidly commoditized by open source); the stronger moat is brand recognition and paid customers / subscriptions; Nvidia may be the exception

Why do you say it's unclear if it's a sustaining innovation?

Seems pretty clear based on capital formation patterns, right?

It's misleading to focus on the new entity aspect of "startup"

What matters more is funding (all $1b+) and deep corporate tie-ups that blur the lines between entities (MSFT, AWS, etc)

It's sustaining because the incumbents extend the underlying paradigm