I’ll double down on my original prediction: Threads is a dud.

If this ends up being wrong, why do you think that is? What priors does it update for you?

1. 1B DAU social graph is sufficient to overcome the cold start problem + retention

2. A social network that doesn’t mint new stars can succeed if the above condition is true

My sense is the follower rich from Instagram are immediately dominating the algo, so this is likely going to just eat into time spent on Instagram.

Makes sense. Do you think that a 1b dau social graph and minting new stars are mutually exclusive? Especially if the feed remains algorithm first?