Micah
@micahtowery
back in October i said on a text chain with my brothers that Germany wanting nukes would be a catastrophic outcome of a Trump presidency. at the time i figured that was 10-20% chance. what would you say the odds are now? 40%? 50%?
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Daniel Marans
@dmarans
I don’t know, but honestly: Why is that catastrophic?
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Micah
@micahtowery
From a geostrategic perspective, Germany is extremely vulnerable, which is part of the story of the world wars. Integrating them into the European economy and giving them the US nuclear umbrella is a bear hug that has helped alleviate the natural anxiety of their position.
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Micah
@micahtowery
Germany getting nukes is, first, a sign that the post WW2 order is irreparably broken. Second, Germany's neighbors would be rightfully concerned (given the history) and probably respond in kind. Arms race, especially nuclear, in a multipolar world has a lot of bad potential outcomes.
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Daniel Marans
@dmarans
Fair enough, though I'm not sure European nations getting nukes is as crazy as other countries. I don't want the WWII framework to fall apart but it might need some updating with Europeans doing more of their own defense.
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Micah
@micahtowery
agree on both points. it's good to have Europe take a stronger role in its own defense. US backstop could probably keep it from escalating into an arms race, but i fear we're in the process of torching our credibility on that front.
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