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@dkcrypto13

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30 Followers


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@dkcrypto13
So, is Farcaster actually going to still do a drop? Asking for a friend
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@dkcrypto13
So do we think that running a node for a limited time helps with the Farcaster airdrop?
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@dkcrypto13
One addition: I tend to sell 1/3 of my holdings whenever I make a good amount of profit that I really don't want to give back completely. Ideally that 1/3 is what I put in, but obviously that is tough, so typically if I make 50% or so, I take 1/3 out. Just to not lose it all. Not advice
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@dkcrypto13
I summarized a lot of this in an article on trading a while back. It is still more or less what I use, I only added to this, if you want to read more: https://t.co/T4LGsoA9j3
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7) Macro considerations This is difficult. I look at liquidity as published by Cross Border and also have my own expectations re Inflation (I think AI will reduce services inflation massively) and debt issues in the US (I think the US Dollar will have a problem). We'll see.
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6) The bubble roof If we are in a bublle (I don't think we are), these typically end in a violent break out of an already steap upwards channel and price rises 100% in a short time. Then it falls through all previous levels. If this the case now, $BTC would rise to $130k ish.
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5) Bitcoin Dominance During all Bull markets, there comes a period when $BTC dominance falls by a large amount (30% or so) quickly. It is often the last leg when everyone gets excited about the newes alts. When $BTC dominance falls to 40%ish again, I will consider selling alts.
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4) Consolidation Drift In strong Bull markets, periods of digestion will trend upwards (ie higher lows). When this changes to consolidations beginning to make lower highs instead, I will consider reducing positions.
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3) Tether Premium Whenever real demand is strong, $BTC (and $ETH) price in USD is typically higher than $USDT price. It means money coming into the market. Since Trump got elected, we've seen a steady Tether discount. If this flips for more than a few days, I lighten positions.
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2) Retail Enthusiasm Coinbase App Store Position: https://t.me/coinbaseappstore Phantom App Store Position: https://t.me/phantom_appstore Generally speaking, when popular crypto apps hit the number 1 spot, Bull markets are in their very last leg. Usually there is about 10 days left.
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1) Funding Rate Heat Map https://www.coinglass.com/FundingRateHeatMap Historically, I cannot remember the market putting in a significant top till this map showed yellow and orange for about a week and a half. When that happens, you can be sure that I will cut my leverage.
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So, when do we sell? I don't really plan to sell most of my long term spot bags as I fully expect $BTC, $ETH and $SOL to trade significantly higher a decade from now. But I do have leverage and sh1tcoins, so it's always good to know what you'll do. These are my exit signals:
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Positioning is just the main driver of assets near-term (3-6 months). So it is always the immediate effect and matters more than any data or valuation. Yeah. So that is my view of the current situation. Opinion only, not advice. Probably wrong, too.
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2yr+ from here, investors will get more and more worried about the world’s unsustainable debt and $BTC and Gold will strongly benefit from this. 2yr+ from here, good crypto projects that bring in or enable others ( $ETH wink wink) to generate revenues will do well.
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Of course, one data point is never decisive and all of this is very short term. 2yr+ from here, the best firms in the world will continue to rise in value, because they do well. And those in tech are a great investment just like those outside of it.
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After the positioning shift is done, poor (but not horrific) labor data will not change much. The Fed will cut and net/net markets likely rise over time as they always do and crypto/tech would to well. If a slowdown is accompanied by inflation then this Bull market is done.
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As it would be an economic one and not a crisis driven one, the Fed will not act fast and increase liquidity fast enough for risk assets to stay elevated. That is why I keep watching inflation more than labor data.
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Tomorrow we get inflation data in the US. This one has re-newed importance because risks are skewed. If this data is meaningfully worse than expected, the Fed will be slower to act and we will almost certainly head for a stronger downturn.
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The likelihood of that is hard to gauge. Short term, China is exporting deflation. Medium term both Harris (bad) & Trump (really horrific) policies are likely to be inflation-inducing,labor shortages will grow in traditional industries. AI counteracts a lot of that. Will be tight
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The biggest risk to my current likeliest scenario (“Positioning Changes conclude this quarter,Q4 & Q1 are good,sometimes great periods”) is a return of inflation. That would cause people to talk about “Stagflation” & cause a re-newed positioning change. Crypto & Tech would suffer
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